tipping points

Tipping points
Dear Alan,
Thank you for your excellent presentation on tipping points in Climate Change Tipping points.
This was showing the events that might trigger an even more alarming future scenario on top of the warming that the current CO2 rise is causing and it’s consequences.
There are a number of such scenarios each possible with the warming that is predicted, and you covered most of them.
The one on Greenland warming and future sea level rise was concerning however on the underlying assumptions and conclusions. Particularly with reference to the RCP 8.5 model projections to year 2300.
I would like to draw your attention to this paper’s comments by leading warmists.
“Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading”
Zeke Hausfather & Glen P. Peters Nature 577, 618-620 (2020)
Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.
“ In the lead-up to the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), researchers developed four scenarios for what might happen to greenhouse-gas emissions and climate warming by 2100. They gave these scenarios a catchy title: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)1. One describes a world in which global warming is kept well below 2?°C relative to pre-industrial temperatures (as nations later pledged to do under the Paris climate agreement in 2015); it is called RCP2.6. Another paints a dystopian future that is fossil-fuel intensive and excludes any climate mitigation policies, leading to nearly 5?°C of warming by the end of the century2,3. That one is named RCP8.5.
RCP8.5 was intended to explore an unlikely high-risk future2. But it has been widely used by some experts, policymakers and the media as something else entirely: as a likely ‘business as usual’ outcome. A sizeable portion of the literature on climate impacts refers to RCP8.5 as business as usual, implying that it is probable in the absence of stringent climate mitigation. The media then often amplifies this message, sometimes without communicating the nuances. This results in further confusion regarding probable emissions outcomes, because many climate researchers are not familiar with the details of these scenarios in the energy-modelling literature..
There is no doubt that the Greenland Ice Sheet has lost some of its mass in the last 50 years though accurate assessment is very hard to do. There was no easy way to accurately measure rainfall, snowfall, melting rates and glacier cleavage of icebergs. This was improved somewhat by the addition of Grace Satellite observations but only for 16 of the last 18 years.

GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) are joint NASA-DLR satellite missions. Both GRACE missions consist of twin satellites, which both orbit the Earth at an altitude of around 500 km. The two satellites are separated by a distance of around 220 km. This distance depends on gravity and can be measured very precisely. This information is used to generate monthly, global models of the Earth’s gravitational field. GRACE was launched in March 2002, and the mission ended in October 2017. GRACE-FO was launched in May 2018. Therefore a gap exists between both missions. Information at Polar Portal a site run by Ruth Mottram’s DMI [Danish Meteorological Institute] Danish Arctic research institutions present updated knowledge on the condition of two major components of the Arctic: The Greenland Ice Sheet and the sea ice has a set of graphics that show the yearly Ice build up.
So the figures quoted for ice gain yearly are only very recent and include huge standard deviations yearly. Further
“The GRACE satellites measure the total changes in ice mass – at the present time. A number of these changes occur due to the fact that the mass of the Earth is constantly changing as a sort of delayed consequence of previous changes in the size of the Ice Sheet known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The changes in mass have not been corrected for the changes in mass due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment.
The surface mass balance (SMB) for the Greenland Ice Sheet is on average 380 Giga metric tonnes a day.
Gigatonnes The mass of ice is usually given in metric gigatonnes (Gt). 1 Gt = 109 tonnes (where 1 tonne = 1000 kg); a gigatonne is 1 billion tonnes. A tonne of water occupies one cubic metre (a cube 1m x 1 m x 1m). A gigatonne (Gt) occupies one cubic kilometre of water (1km x 1km x 1km).
To convert a mass of ice into the total amount global sea levels would rise if the ice all melted (i.e., the sea level equivalent), we need to know how much area the oceans cover. This is usually given as 3.618 x 108 km2.
A 1 mm increase in global sea level requires 10-3 m3 (10-12 km3) of water for each square metre of the ocean surface, or 10-12 Gt of water. So, 361.8 Gt of ice will raise global sea levels by 1 mm. 361.8 Gt of ice is equivalent to 394.67 km3 ice.
Greenland has a lot of ice, one figure being 2,850,000 cubic kilometres and up to 2 kilometres thick in places but there are several different figures given the difficulty in trying to measure it. )
The Greenland Ice Sheet has a sea level equivalent ice volume of 7.42 m, and covers 1.2% of the global land surface. This means that there are 7,420 lots of 360 Gigatons of water available in Greenland for melting and at a loss of 360 GT a year it would take 7,420 years to melt completely.
We are not at that level of melt at the moment and even if it was tripled it would still take 2000 years plus to melt.
The RCP charts used seem unintentionally misleading. The giant area of red on the RCP 8.5 chart implied that most of the ice would have melted by 2300 which is as shown impossible.
I feel the graphics may be showing the increase in melting of the surface layer under that scenario which makes it look as if all Greenland has melted rather than the fact that only the top 1-2 mm is melting faster under that scenario. The ice loss will still take thousands of years.
This is probably not a good tipping point example to use, implying an 18 cm rise in sea level. Antarctica loses even less, about half so we are looking at 27 cms from both
NB Roughly 15% of glacier ice is below sea level. But the figures quoted for sea equivalent Ice must take that into consideration.


A very good overview of a complex subject. May be difficult to get through it in 1 session, a few minor typos, an observation and a comment included.

Attachment 2
1. Rubik’s cube

2. Yea could be yeah

7. but it was because they had more upper class
that had time on their hands to sit and ponder equations?

Perhaps society had evolved to where Maths actually was useful,subject of talk?, to some people at least.
Either is good

14. In the early days they used to write intangible numbers long hand, not intangible??
as this means untouchable
may be better to say unknown numbers?

14. an actual entity that arose in India in 6728 AD i.e. 1 – 1 = 0. 6728?

20. Eugenia Chang Infinity
has many answers. Infinity is not a normal positive number. Infinity + 1 still
equals infinity but if you take infinity from both sides of the equation then 1 =
0. So, infinity cannot be treated as a number. Infinity is more like a measure
just like many is a measure – if you take 1 from many you still have many.
Harry – Eugenia is wrong 1 is a separate entity to infinity in this equation and is not absorbed by it.
The two infinities must, by definition, equal each other completely [or one of them is not infinite] and therefore cancel completely
so the concept of the equation is wrong.

Will have a relook at it but it seems pretty good as is. H

Could give you a call Friday? H


I ask you – What Has Maths Ever Done for Us – I say it has done nothing for us
apart from being a distraction, made for fun and fancy nothing more useful
than a Rubik’s Cube. Maths would take us away from the important things of life
like getting on with job and yes, Maths did take us away from focusing on the
job in hand and not just us, it distracted our fathers and our fathers, fathers.
Jun 29, 2018 – It took Erno Rubik (the inventor of the Rubik’s Cube) one month to learn how to do a Rubik’s Cube.

Oh yea, yea it does do that
It helps us understand the world better
Oh, yea Greg understanding the world better is very important – remember we
used to think the world was flat.
Oh, all right I’ll grant you that humans would not have progressed and
understanding the world better are two things that Mathematics has done for
We needed it for surveying

Obviously, we needed it for surveying, Harry. Surveying goes without saying,
but apart from humans not progressing, understanding the world better and
surveying what has mathematics ever done for us
Physics and engineering would be inconceivable without mathematics. It is no
exaggeration to say that our buildings would not stand, and our spaceships
would not fly if it was not for mathematics
An equation can make a complex statement easier to comprehend.
Oh, yea alright fair enough
Calculus in mathematics lets us understand things like electricity,
electromagnetic waves, digital cameras and microphones.
Prime numbers are necessary for today’s cryptography.
Before mathematics, ship building was a matter of trial and error. Remember
how we used to launch ships and they would roll over and sink and remember
how we won the Americas cup by using superior mathematics, or at least the
Americans thought that.
Ok Ok, Ok but apart from helping humans progress, being able to
understanding the world better, surveying, buildings being able to stand, space
ships being able to fly, making complex statements easier to comprehend,
understanding the intricacies of electricity, electromagnetic waves, and how
digital cameras and microphones work, how necessary prime numbers are in
cryptography, and making ship building easy. What has mathematics ever done
for us?

Getting GPS to work
Oh, Shut up Harry
Slide 3: Maths is the logic of shape
Back out of character now. Why should we care about Maths? Well humans
want to understand the world and Maths is a way of understanding it. It is a
way to measure the world and a way to predict the world. Predicting things
like the weather and modeling how the Covid 19 virus would spread.
Liz could well have said, Maths is very useful in helping us to think logically.
What do you think comes next in this little test in the logic of shape?
I say it is a circle in the middle and a white diamond in the south west corner.
People can spend hours talking about this using logic. It is not the answer here
that is important because I think there are a few different answers, but it is the
thought processes you go through to get your answer that is important.
Slide 4 Maths is the logic of quantity
That was the logic of shape this slide shows demonstrates the logic of quantity.
The question here is “circle half of the lady birds” and again there are a few
correct answers. You see one person’s logic is another person’s light bulb
What I would have done in answering this question is run a line through the
middle of the group so half of the lady birds on each side of the line. Deb
would have circled every second lady bird and – in case you can’t see it – what
this idiot has done here is he has circled half of each lady bird.

Slide 5 Maths is the logic of arrangement
And another thing is that maths shows us how to arrange things – sort of how
to get the most things into a certain area. I have seen these things before but
am not sure where.

Slide 6 Who is counting who
Primitive tribes did not need maths all that much although they needed to
count, they used it calculate the position of the sun and they needed to know
the physics when hunting (like the vectors you subconsciously use when
throwing a spear on a windy day). But as humans became more civilized, such
as moving into agriculture and then moving into towns, we needed to use
maths for surveying, tax collecting, building and astronomy and as we became
more complex we needed more equations. There are at present 2032
equations, 1307 formulas, and 1026 identities and these numbers are still
Equations have evolved to grasp some ideas that cannot be put into words.
Historically maths has been closely tied to physics but this century it is likely to
be aligned with biology and social science.
But there is a catch, biological models tend to over simplify reality and they
always begin with assumptions. Maths models have worked well in physics but
in biology it appears not to be the case.
Slide 7: Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 etc.
Now going back in time a bit – Zero was a late comer to arithmetic because it
was difficult to visualize zero cubits or zero sheep. Zero used to be a “^” to
denote an empty space and this upside-down V was used in Babylon in about
400 BC.
When Arabic numerals arrived in Europe, they had to learn nine new symbols
1, 2, 3, 4, etc. or a somewhat distorted versions of these numbers to replace I,
V, X etc. To make it difficult they were Arabic numbers and not Christian
numbers and to make it even worse they had to include an innovation that was
very hard grasp the number zero i.e. they had to include something that meant
The Roman numerical system was good for writing numbers but was
impractical for calculating things. Like 5 groups of seven equals. Whereas the
Arabic number system was not only good for writing things down but also
good for calculations because of the decimal place value system. This
transition from Roman to Arabic numerals took well over two centuries. So,

the order of things was that Greek philosophy was followed by deductive
reasoning and deductive reasoning was followed by maths. Deductive
reasoning was held up as a pure science and it was this deductive reasoning
that gave birth to modern mathematics and it was this deductive reasoning
that was bought to the Arabs – but it was really the Indians that bought the
decimal numbering system into the main stream and then it was the
Europeans that made the decisive transition to modern mathematics. Not that
the Europeans were any smarter but it was because they had more upper class
that had time on their hands to sit and ponder equations.
In the European mathematics book, I was reading about this topic there was no
mention about what the Chinese were up to in mathematics. They were going
about their maths in their own way. They invented the abacus in about 500 BC,
the concept of zero had been developed in Chinese mathematics in about 300
BC and they were using the 21-bamboo slip method in 305 BC – these were the
earliest two-digit multiplication tables. What I found intriguing they were using
a type of algorithm in linear algebra for solving linear equations like this
2x + y – z = 8
-3x – y + 2z = 11
-2x + y + 2z = -3
And this was being used 1500 years before the Europeans discovered it in the
Slide 8: Right angled triangles a 2 + b 2 = c 2
Pythagoras was a Greek that lived around 500 BC and he discovered the
beauty of right-angled triangles. Right angled triangles are extremely useful
Every good solid structure relies on a2 + b2 = c2. If you can make a right-angled
triangle out of part of your problem you can go part of the way to solving your
Slide 9: How far away is the horizon
Your problem might be how far away is the horizon at sea level. Well to work
that out you need to know the radius of the earth which so happens to be
about 6,371,000 m and you need to know your own height – say it is 2 metres

tall. So, the hypotenuse 6,371,002 so that makes it about 5 km away and if you
are standing on a 30 metre high hill you can see about 19 km.
But when you assume that a2 + b2 = c2 is true for every right-angled triangle
you run into a conundrum straight away. Say you cut a square diagonally in
half you get a right-angled triangle 1 2 + 1 2 = 2 2 and so the answer to the length
of the hypotenuse is the square root of 2 and the square root of 2 is a number
like pi, it has no end. Supercomputers managed to calculate trillions of digits
for pi. Anyway, after you get over the sqrt of 2 conundrum then everything is
Slide 10 Pi, Archimedes and Quantum physics
Pi is quite interesting, first it is the ratio of the area of a circle to the square of
its radius i.e. pi = area/radius x radius, second it is defined as the ratio of
circle's circumference to its diameter. Pi is approximately equal to 3.14159
which means there are about 3.14 diameters that fit around the perimeter of a
The Egyptians calculated the area of a circle by a formula that gave the
approximate value of 3.1605 for ? which was a bit too big. The first fair dinkum
calculation of pi was done by Archimedes. The Greek savant used a trick with a
96-sided polygon to correctly estimate Pi to about two digits (3.14). Pi is used
in some calculations for building and construction, Pi pops up in a number of
things in nature including quantum mechanics like it can be found when
comparing energy levels in a hydrogen atom, Pi helps us figure out how to
point an antenna toward a satellite under any circumstance. Pi is used in
actuation. Actuators control the flaps that move on aircraft wings and tails or
the parts that open and close valves on jet engines. Pi helps determine how
large a roll of paper can fit into in a printer. It also has a role in, music theory
and medical procedures.
Slide 11 Eratosthenes and the circumference of the Earth
The Greeks really did not need to know Pi to work out the circumference of the
Earth. A calculation where you would think Pi would come in handy. They knew
the Earth was round and they knew there 360 degrees in a circle. The story has
it that Eratosthenes was a Greek who worked in the Library of Alexandria in
Egypt. He knew that at local noon time on the summer solstice in Aswan in

Egypt, the Sun was directly overhead. He knew the sun was directly overhead
because when he looked down a deep well on the summer solstice in Aswan
his shadow blocked the reflection of the Sun on the water because his head
was in the way. Then when he was in Alexandria some 882 km from Aswan on
the summer solstice, he measured the Sun's angle of elevation at by using a
vertical rod, and measuring the length of its shadow on the ground. Using the
length of the rod, and the length of the shadow, he calculated that the angle of
the sun's rays was about 7 ° 12’ or 1/50th the circumference of a circle; he
assumed the Earth as perfectly spherical, he concluded that the Earth's
circumference was 50 times the known distance from Alexandra to Aswan,
about 882 km away this would imply a circumference of 44,100 km (an error of
10% to big). It was a beautiful piece of work.

Slide 12: Displacement
Archimedes in about the year 250 BC was taking a bath, he noticed that the
level of the water in the tub rose as he got in, he then realized he could use
this to determine the volume of the King’s crown and that, in turn, could be
used to determine if the crown was in fact made of gold. If he submerged
crown it would cause the water to rise to a level equal to the crowns volume.
And then by dividing the weight of the crown by the volume of water
displaced, the density of the crown could be calculated. This density would be
lower than that of gold if cheaper and less dense metals had been added. The
test was conducted successfully, proving that the crown had silver mixed in
with the gold. The formula of density of a body Pb /(Gold 19.3 g per cubic
centimetre) over the density of fluid Pf (water is 1.0 g per cc) = dry weight of an
object Wd over the dry weight of an object minus the weight when fully
immersed so Pb/ Pf = Wd/ (Wd – W i). 19.3/1 = 5 (5 – 3). This formula means
we can work out the crown’s density or the specific gravity directly without
having to compare it to the weight of an actual gold crown. Archimedes
principle and specific gravity formula are still in use today. It was the first step
toward making ship building a science rather than a matter of trial and error.
Slide 13: Levers and Pulleys
When talking about levers and pulleys, Archimedes said to King Herion – Give
me a place to stand and I will move the Earth. The formula (d1) x (w1) = (d2) x

(w2) basically says the weight of a 70 kg man can lift a 700 kg cow if he places
the fulcrum 10 times closer to the cow than himself. We use levers and pulleys
all the time such as lifting elevators and instead of trial and error we can work
out what we need to do with mathematical formulas and get it right the first
Slide 14: Equals, Zero and Minus
We will leave that smart Alec Archimedes alone for a while. In the early days
they used to write intangible numbers long hand, then they started using x and
y and in 1557 the equals sign was used x + y = z. So even though
mathematicians knew that 1 + 1 = 2, the actual equation was probably not
written as such until the C16th and it was not until the C19th when the
mathematicians actually questioned that philosophically does 1 + 1 really = 2
As I mentioned before zero was being used in China in about 300 BC and was
an actual entity that arose in India in 6728 AD i.e. 1 – 1 = 0. Negative numbers
came along and this would have been a hard concept to grasp, like having
minus four sheep. You gave me 10 sheep last year and I gave you 14 sheep this
year that means you owe me four sheep and I owe you minus four sheep. Or if
I owe you 50 willow sticks (willow sticks were probably the first type of money
used in Europe. The story has it they used to use willow sticks this way. Say if
you did some work for the King, the King’s treasurer might break a willow stick
in half and on the willow stick it would have carved the king owes you 1 pig for
the work you did for him and you could carry this half stick around with you
until you wanted the pig, and then when you did want the pig, you would front
the treasurer and he would match your willow stick half with his willow stick
half, see that they fitted and then give you the pig. But you could also give your
half willow stick to your mate who might have done some work for you and
your mate could pick up the pig)
So now the need for using negative numbers in maths was becoming
necessary. If I owe you 50 willow sticks and you owe me 30 willow sticks that
means I owe you minus 20 willow sticks.

Slide 15: The more complex the society the more complex the maths

Maths is at the forefront of every civilized society, and was even in use, in the
most primitive of cultures. The more complex a society, the more complex the
Maths is used in our mobile phones, architecture, art, money, engineering, and
even sports. In the modern world, the everyday maths in space and geometry
are used in a range of applications. These include computer graphics, making
sense of medical scans, designing haircuts, and many other things.
Slide 16: The map of mathematics
A way to think about maths is that pure maths is maths done for its own sake,
while applied maths is maths with a practical use. You could say pure maths is
blue sky maths and it is separate from the physical world.
Applied maths is maths that has a particular job to do like statistics or
probability theory, it involves the application of mathematics to sort out
problems in science, engineering, computer science, business.
Physics and engineering would be inconceivable without calculus. And as Liz
said it is no exaggeration to say that our buildings stand, and our spaceships fly
because of Newton’s laws.
The problems and theorems that directly challenge pure maths may appear in
various maths fields, such as algebra, geometry, number theory, differential or
integral calculus, etc. … When problem solutions or proven theorems are
adopted and used in other fields, this becomes applied mathematics. The main
tributaries of maths are Algebra, Geometry, Applied mathematics and Analysis.
All four of these mingle together.
Slide 17: A Million, a billion and a trillion
A bit of maths might able to actually grasp the magnitude of numbers. It may
be done by transforming one quantity into another. Like getting your head
around the magnitude of a million years versus a billion years. If your say that
if each year equaled a second then one million equals 12 days and one billion
equals 32 years and one trillion equals 32,000 years. You get a better idea of
Slide 18: Newton’s Third Law
Equations can change our view of the world. I remember riding in a bike
peloton – in our peloton you ride two abreast. One day, due to a lack of

communication the rider on the front left turned right, she was little, and the
rider on the right went straight ahead and he was big. The scenario that
followed could be explained by Newtons Laws and these laws can be
summarized in some equations. As they say an equation can sometimes make
a statement easier to understand.
Newton's First Law says an object (or a bike rider) will remain at rest or in
uniform motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force.
F = Force, dv = change in velocity, dt = change in time,

The second law states that the acceleration of an object (or bike rider) is
dependent upon – the net force acting upon the object and the mass of the
object. So, the Force of an object it measures the rate of change of its
F = Force, dv = change in velocity, dt = change in time, mv = mass x volume

Third law For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction
F1 = – F2
but in the case of this photo there is a lot of forces acting in lots of different
directions and I think it would need a super computer to sort it out.
Slide 19 Adam Spencer
Let us leave the history of maths alone for a while. Adam Spencer has a series
of podcast called – the Big Questions. One of his guests said that Maths ends up
into different branches. Like different languages such as French and Hebrew
just because you know French does not mean you know Hebrew and just
because you know one branch of maths does not mean you understand the
other branch. It is with great joy to know enough maths in a few branches to
be able to see a technique that is used in one branch can then be used in
another branch of mathematics.
Slide 20 Eugenia Chang spoke about beyond infinity on Adam’s podcast.

She told us that infinity has been thought of for about for 2,000 years. Infinity
has many answers. Infinity is not a normal positive number. Infinity + 1 still
equals infinity but if you take infinity from both sides of the equation then 1 =
0. So, infinity cannot be treated as a number. Infinity is more like a measure
just like many is a measure – if you take 1 from many you still have many.
Slide 21 Hilbert’s Hotel
To give the audience a feel for infinity Eugenia talked about Hilbert’s infinite
hotel – it has an infinite number of rooms. One day the hotel was full so that
meant there were an infinite of number of guests filling the infinite number of
rooms but another a person came along wanting a room. What would you do if
you were the hotel manager – how do you fit him in? What Eugenia Chang
would do is ask the person in room one to move to room two and the person
from room 2 to room 3 and so on – a chain reaction is happening and then you
can fit the person in into room 1. But what happens if an infinite number
people arrive all wanting a room – well Eugenia would ask each person already
in the hotel to move to the room number that is equal to old room number
multiplied by two so that means the person in room 1 goes to room 2 and the
person in room 2 goes to room 4 and so on until all rooms with even numbers
are filled up which then means all the vacant rooms are odd numbers so the
infinite guests move into the odd numbers. So where am I going with this?
How is this sticking to the topic Mathematics – What has it ever done for us?
Well thinking of the largest number led us to think about the smallest number,
that is, what is the closest number to 0 – is it 0.00…. or is 1/infinity – and trying
to understand the smallest number……….
Slide 22: Calculus
…………led us to calculus which led to understanding things that change
continuously like electricity, electromagnetic waves, digital cameras, they all
use calculus. Calculus gave mathematicians and scientists a vocabulary for
talking about quantities that change, like tangents of curves.
So once mathematicians started thinking about 1/infinity they continued along
the route towards calculus……
Slide 23: Tangent of a curve

……for example, how to draw a line that just grazes a curve at one point. It
used to be worked out by a series of approximations. In order find the tangent
line at a point in a curve you need to know the slope of the line at that point.
We turn curves into graphs and we use graphs for stock market prices and
electrocardiograms. A graph is a visual relationship between variables e.g.
stock process and time or electrical potential and time.
The world of static diagrams or discrete quantities of Newton’s time changed
to a world of continuous motion and continually varying quantities. So,
calculus mathematicians found the necessary tools to deal with modern
science. In Newton’s time finding an area or computing a slope was an
unbelievably laborious process.
There were mathematical equations that were worked out a long time ago but
this was pure maths and had no use in the real world it was just fun and fancy.
but later on, some of these equations found a use.
Slide 24: Euler’s Identity (a)
Now here is the most beautiful equation ever. It came about because Euler
wanted to work out how Newton’s laws could be applied to fluids.
It’s a beautiful equation because Richard Feynman said so (Richard was a
Nobel prize winner for Quantum mechanics). He said it is a jewel because it
combines five of the most important constants of maths with three maths
operations into a single equation. The constants are “e” which
is Euler's number, 2.718… which is the base of natural logarithms and occurs
widely in mathematical analysis, it’s also an important number in physics,
where it shows up in the equations for waves, like light waves, sound waves,
and quantum waves. “i” is the imaginary unit, which satisfies i 2 = ?1 they often
use imaginary numbers, and ? is pi, the ratio of the circumference of a circle to
its diameter. That red line on the graph on the left is what this equation is
Slide 25: Euler’s Identity (b)
This picture is an example on how Euler’s formula works. Euler's formula
provides a means of conversion between cartesian coordinates, where there is
only set one of co-ordinates on a graph – co-ordinates like x = 4 and y=5, and

polar coordinates where there is literally an infinite number of coordinates for
a given point.
Here pi is the angle that a line connecting the origin with a point on the unit
circle makes with the positive real axis, measured anti clockwise and in radians.
Slide 26: Hamilton and crystals
Hamilton 1827 knew certain kinds of crystals could split light beams into two
separate beams, Hamilton proved mathematically that if the angle of incidence
was at the right angle, then the light beam would not only be split into two
separate beams but these beams would end as a hollow cone of light. Later
Humphry found in the lab that this was true. This was the first time that a new
physical phenomenon had been deduced by using mathematics.
Slide 27: Hamilton and Quaternions
Hamilton in the 1830s discovered quaternions. Quaternions represent
orientations and rotations of objects in three dimensions. A formula could be
like this w + xi + yj + zk, where w, x, y, z are real numbers and i, j, k are
imaginary units that satisfy certain conditions for example i = sqrt of -1 – we
talked about “i” the imaginary number before. Hamilton thought of using three
imaginary numbers i, j and k where i 2 = j 2 = k 2 = -1 and ij = -ji = k, jk = -kj = i, ki = –
ik = j then one can add subtract multiply and divide.
So, in algebra if you multiply by i, the imaginary number, it is the same as in
geometry as rotating something by 90 degrees anti clockwise. and to multiply
by (a+ bi) this can be broken down into rotation and dilation so this can take a
lot of the mystery out of complex numbers. I am sure you understand all that.
The thing about quaternions are they are the best way to represent anything
that spins in three dimensions and that includes protons, neutrons and
electrons. The sub atomic particles were not even suspected in Hamilton’s
time. He had discovered the right mathematics a century before it would be
needed. They represent orientations and rotations of objects in three
Slide 28: Geometry – Euclidian, Spherical and Hyperbolic

Geometry that involves flat two-dimensional spaces is called Euclidian
geometry where as Non-Euclidian geometry is the study of curves and can be
three dimensional. The study of curves involves Ant geometry (spherical
geometry) and whale geometry (hyperbolic geometry).
Slide 29: Spherical (ant) geometry
Ant geometry is important in navigation, because the shortest distance
between two points on a sphere is the path along a great circle and a great
circle is like the equator or any line of longitude.
Slide 30 Hyperbolic (whale) geometry
An example of whale geometry is sound does not travel at a constant speed in
the ocean it travels proportional to the depth below the surface so the deeper
you are the faster it goes. Sound in the ocean travels not in a straight line but
in a curved arc. They are arcs of circle centres at the surface. So, a straight line
for a whale is a curve for us. In whale geometry the sum of the degrees of a
triangle is less than 180 degrees. There are no rectangles with four right angles
but there are plenty of pentagons with right angles. Negative curvature means
that lines start parallel tend to move further apart.
This whale geometry might have helped Albert Einstein’s theory of general
relativity which talks about four-dimensional space time that has curvature
that varies from place to place.
Slide 31: A Chaotic System
When the maths gets too complicated we call it chaos. An example of chaos is a
double pendulum. A single pendulum has quite a predictable swing. With a single
pendulum you have formulas for frequency, period, velocity, and a couple of
others. Whereas a double pendulum (which has a stopper half way along the
string) becomes very erratic and random.
If you have perfect information about a single pendulum you will be able to
forecast what it will do. If you have perfect information about a chaotic system
like the weather then you will have perfect forecasts. But any inaccuracy in the
information will grow exponentially over time and after a few days will make a
forecast useless. There is nothing as useless as a weather forecast 60 days old.
In the atmosphere or in the ocean you can’t exactly solve these equations
because the system becomes too large, and there is sensitivity to initial

conditions (there is your link to chaos).

The way we approximately solve these weather and ocean equations is to cut the
world up into small boxes, and solve these equations approximately on each little
grid box.
In this way, our field is completely dependent on the underlying mathematics —
from the equations themselves to the numerical methods to solve these
equations. In terms of new things, these numerical methods are probably where
the main advances emerge from in the modelling. For example, one of the
models we use has a completely new way of mapping our gridboxes in the
vertical direction…
Slide 31: Black and Scholes Equations
Now here is a formula that caused chaos on the stock exchange. This formula
gave economists the impression that stock could be managed but it was this
equation led to an explosive growth of derivatives, that is bets on which direction
stocks and bonds will go. So, it appears that risk is under control. But stock
markets are stock markets just like tigers are tigers, you don’t know when they
will attack and three times did. The market turned on people who thought they
controlled it. 1987, 1998 and 2007. They blamed the quants and the
mathematicians but let’s look at it.
Well let’s say today a particular share is worth $100 and tomorrow there is a 50
50 chance it will rise to $101 or fall to $99. You could use this knowledge to make
50 cents tomorrow even though you did not know which way the share price
would go. To do this you ask your broker to sell two shares as an option at $100
each. So, you hedge your option by borrowing a $100 share from your mate. The
next day arrives if the stock goes down to $99 you could let that option expire
but you could buy one share for $99 and return it to you mate, you make a profit
of $1 because you borrowed it at $100 and bought it $99 but if they go to $101
you take up the option and buy two shares from your broker at $100 each. You
return your share to your mate and sell the remaining share for $101 and so once
again you profit by $1. However today’s world your broker will catch onto your
game pretty quick and now the share option will cost you 50 cents. But in the
early days investors and brokers did not know how to price options. It created
jobs for a new type of trader called quants (physics and maths back ground) and
Black and Scholes created an air of invincibility about this formula. But then

cracks started to show in 1987 when the Dow dropped 22%, and in 1998 when
the Russian government defaulted on its debts, and in 2007 where the subprime
was at the core. The common denominator was that the mathematical model
failed to anticipate the volatility of the markets. The distribution curve they used
assumed that innumerable small investors make random choices but when one
of the investors gets too big or stops behaving independently the model does not
apply. So it is buyer beware. It wasn’t that the formula was wrong it was the
people who designed it. So the V in this formula it is the market value of a call
option in finance and S is the value of an underlying asset p and alpha represent
the interest rate and volatility of the stock.
Slide 32: The End
Gladly or sadly we have reached the end. As for the title “Mathematics – what
has it ever done for us” all I can say is that it has done and awful lot for us apart
from the last example. From my point of view advances in Mathematics and
advances in civilization grew together hand in hand, it was a symbiotic
relationship. With no maths there would be no towns or cities and so no
advanced civilization and with no civilization there would be no need for maths.
Might I say I enjoyed preparing this talk even though I felt very inadequate along
the way. The intelligence of some of these mathematicians is absolutely
astounding and from this I have now drawn my own conclusion what intelligence
is, you need a good memory, you need to be very fast in recalling that bit of
memory and you have to have a great abstract brain.

The end tentatively

Theories of gravity and mechanics were in pretty good shape. Newton had explained how
the planets moved around the sun. Euler and Laplace had had explained multiple body
interactions in the solar system such as the precession of equinoxes which is a gravity-
induced, slow, and continuous change in the orientation of say a planet on its axis. The Earth's
axis rotation has a cycle of approximately 25,772 years. This is similar to a spinning-top, with the
axis tracing out a pair of cones joined at their apices… But electricity, magnetism and the
nature of light were still mysterious but by 1865 the physicists had arrived at a theory that
unified all three subjects. Magnetic fields produce electric currents. Electric fields are
generated by electric currents and light is nothing more than a traveling electro magnetic

wave a woven tapestry of vibrating magnetic fields and electric fields. So to get to this point
the physicist had to assimilate experimental discoveries, they had to replace tangible
physics like wheels, bars pulleys and levers with intangible physics such as electric and
magnetic fields. Common sense and everyday experience no longer applied so mathematics
in a deeper way needed to be embraced. Physicist in 1830s thought light traveled through a
mysterious aether in waves but they could not detect this directly. Mysteries of electricity
and magnetism were also deepening. Volta made a battery, Orsted found when he turned
on a current it moved a compass needle and Faraday discovered electromagnetic induction
e.g. moving a magnet close to a coil wire would produce an electric current. So the man who
wove all these clues together into a U beaut formula was James Maxwell. Maxwell worked
out that the speed of a magnetic wave was 311 million metres per second which was pretty
close to the already computed speed of light 315 million metres per second which got
Maxwell thinking and he deduced that electromagnetic waves and light waves were the
same thing and from this they worked out that electromagnetic waves could exist at
different wave lengths such as micro waves, infrared, Xrays and all these waves could be
created by oscilating electric fields.
E=mc 2
C is the speed of light and is a very big number so that means even a small amount of mass
can produce a big amount of energy as seen at Hiroshima with 64 kg of enriched uranium
but the amount of matter actually transformed to energy was about 1/5 th of gram.

Also Einstein about special relativity. If you launch a clock into orbit it will run a few nano
seconds slower and our GPS system takes this into account. GPS compares time from a few
different satellites to determine how far away you are from them. Each satellite is moving
very fast compared to you so their clocks are slowed down by the dilation of time effect.

So now are living in a world of applied relativity. In general relativity corrections to GPS are
larger than the special relativity corrections t=t/sqrt(1-v 2 /c 2 ). The theory of relativity led us to
black holes and the Big Bang and provides corrections to GPS satellites and it explains why
light bends as it passes the sun.


Then there was Dirac who predicted positively charged particles. He knew holes or the
absence of a particle existed as negatively charged electrons. But sometimes these electrons
have a positive charge it mathematically had to be. The positron was finally discovered by
Anderson in an experiment. It was the first e that theoretical physicist predicted a previously
unknown particle purely for mathematical reasons. Now physicist understand that every
particle has an anti-matter equivalent. Some particles have spin of 0, + or- 1, + or – 2 and
some have waves known as bosons (like photons). Bosons like to congregate together that is
why lasers exist and Fermons stay aloof. This explains why atoms have electrons in orbit and
why at that inner most shell that only two will fit and the next shell can have because
electrons are not allowed to overlap. It is this pattern that explains the periodic table.
Without Diracs equation our universe would have been frozen at the first sentence of
Genesis. Diracs equation about positrons not only explained lasers but also positron emission
tomography or PET scans for brain activity. Electron spins are manipulated by magnetic fields
in MRI scans.Now we have a different idea of a vacuum it is not nothing it is teeming with
energy particles and their anti particles. In fact the word particle has been slightly outdated.
Now we have electric fields that pervade all space a particle is a fluctuation in these electric
fields that will flash in and out or last for a while.
Physicists were being routinely startled that mathematicians had already discovered the tools
they needed and vice versa the mathematicians were discovering deeper new maths because
of the problems physicists were discovering.

Planetary motion says that the planets orbit round the sun is an ellipse not in a circle, the
distance of the planet from the sun r when it is ? degrees from aphelion (from its furthest
distance from the sun) = the distance when the planet is 90 degrees away the aphelion / 1 +
eccentricity e = away from its planetary orbit p/1+ e cos (?) e .g. e for Earth is 0.0167
Kepplers laws on planetary motion are useful in where the moon will be should you want to
land on it. Also it is good for determining if life as we know it can be supported on another
planet because you know how far that planet is away from its sun.
Before the C19th there was only one algebra and only one geometry. There was no idea to
invent anything different. The concept of numbers had grown to irrational number, A real
number that can NOT be made by dividing two integers (an integer has no fractional part).
"Irrational" means "no ratio", so it isn't a rational number. For example, the square root of 2
is an irrational number, then zero and negative numbers and finally imaginary numbers

which is an imaginary i2 = -1 or I =s qrt-1. When do you use these in things such as
electricity, as well as quadratic equations, In quadratic planes, imaginary numbers show up
in equations that don't touch the x axis. Imaginary numbers become particularly useful in
advanced calculus.
Group theory In mathematics and abstract algebra, group theory studies the algebraic
structures known as groups. Chemists use symmetry groups to classify molecules and
predict many of their chemical properties. Usually, it is not only the symmetry of
molecules but also the symmetries of some local atoms, molecular orbitals, rotations
and vibrations of bonds,

Fourier Principal
Allows any time varying signal to be decomposed into the spectrum of

covid murchison

Covid 19 response in Shepparton and possible responses.
There are a number of possible scenarios to play out in Australia and Victoria with the Covid 19 virus.
One of the better ones would be both a weakening of the virulence and a subsidence in the infection rate.
Another would be the development of a vaccine.

But the other possibilities as winter worsens and the number of cases in Victoria increases
is that we may have our own little slice of a pandemic in Victoria that may affect the Goulburn Valley region.
Are we prepared as a region to cope with the implications and what level of preparedness do we need?
The Federal Government and the State Government have given conflicting and confusing advice
but do have plans in place which offer some guidelines.

Facts on Covid 19.
It is an RNA virus of a viral family that causes a large number of our common cold infections every year.
Most Corona virus infections are mild but annoying and the large majority of people get over them without ongoing problems.
Elderly people and people with severe medical conditions obviously are at higher risk of complications.
Covid 19 is an exception in that it has a component that causes a severe respiratory infection also known as SARS.
The new strain causes death in vulnerable elderly people but seems to spare most people under 60 without health issues.
In Wuhan where it broke out and Italy, the first heavily hit European country initial death rates were quite high,
up to 10% of cases ill enough to be admitted to hospital.
It also affected a lot of and killed some of the carers, Doctors, Nurses and Nursing Home staff
that were exposed to high levels of contact with it.
Since that early disastrous start we have learnt a lot more about it and its nature, infection styles, virulence and management.

The first good thing is that due to it being new testing was mot possible early on or at high levels a lottle later.
As testing kits became more available and testing rates including asymptomatic patients became more common place
we realise that there is a much larger number of younger people who are catching, carrying and giving the disease than was at first
able to be recognised.
The death rate per infection has gone down over 10 times from 10% to 0.6 % and may fall a lot lower to 0.1% which is 100 times better than first estimated.
The second thing is that not everybody gets infected or will get infected.
If the disease only infects 10% of the population per year per cold season the death rate for the population will be only 0.01% or 1 in a thousand.
The implication for Victoria would be 6000 mainly elderly people in a year or 18 times our annual road toll.
The bad news is that this would happen every year until a vaccine is developed.

A further issue is the virulence of the virus. In Australia to date we seem to have been lucky with a strain
that is 10 times weaker than that affecting the first groups overseas
This would translate to 600 deaths of elderly people extra a year.
But that is a best case scenario.

Lockdowns, social isolation and masks will always offer some chance of restricting spread at any time
during an actual spreading pandemic but cannot get rid of the virus at this stage.
The scenario to consider is what actions do we need to take as a Community if Covid once again comes to town
but in a more problematic way. There are three general groups to consider.

The most important are the children. Here we are very lucky as they will usually catch nothing more than a slight cold.
We know this on health advice as the Government is quite willing , prepared and determined to insist that schools remain open.
Despite children mixing extremely well and being likely to spread the illness quite quickly if it is around.
The people likely to catch it after other children are the parents and teachers most of whom are young and again at little risk.
The main risk groups are older teachers and grandparents or elderly friends who may be doing babysitting of the kids for the parents.
In the case of an epidemic outbreak good advice would be to put elderly teachers on paid leave and to not have grandparents or elderly friends be involved with the children.

The next group is the general public of working age. Again we have a lockdown plan which will be implemented
with essential services maintained and working from home. Not an issue.
The exception is those people with medical health issues who need to be identified ,
isolated a little more and be treated promptly if unwell with hospital review.
More attention needs to be paid to vulnerable Community groups in the Shepparton area
including Aboriginal and Immigrant groups who may have more individuals at risk.

Finally we have older people where the current Government plan does not fully address the issues.
Australia looks after a lot of it’s elderly people in Retirement and Nursing Home situations which
put a lot of elderly people in close proximity or under the same roof.
They also need extra social and nursing care whichmeans the people who look after them are more exposed to
personal infective risks and also more lokely to pass it on th others.
Current guidelines have aging in place provisions and an intention to either not admit elderly people
suffering from mild symptoms or even active Covid if they ar otherwise well.
The idea is to have them managed in their Nursing Home by a mixture of professional nurses and otherwise
Nursing home staff who have medical training but not enough to cope with the problems of managing people with a serious
and deadly infective disease.

As we have seen with Interstate Nursing Homes sending elderly people back to their nursing homes is not a good idea
as it spreads the disease to staff and patients and prevents well persons from seeing their families during the lockdown.
The Government has half addressed this issue with returning travelers by putting them up in hotels but
the people looking after them are guards not nursing staff.

A better approach would be to coordinate am effective response ahead of time or ready to go if the time arrives
with a set of local facilities and nursing staff. The priorities are to isolate but look after
all identified Covid patients in the Greater Shepparton area with nursing staff available for the elderly
until after 2 weeks they have recovered and can return to their normal place of residence.
This could be enacted by the health authorities with the help of local government and local medical and nursing staff.
To this end a number of potential buildings to house the patients with Community support and adequate numbers of staff need to be identified.
Potential sites need to be able to support a nursing station, Separate rooms for each patient and full provision with protective equipment.
Meals need to be provided and medical support available for those who develop symptoms or those who wish to be treated palliatively.
Options in Shepparton are lomited but not impossible, One of the local motels could be involved with enough support and post infection compensation.
An opportunity may exist in Murchison which had a functioning Nursing Home structure until recently and could be refurbished quickly
if the Community agreed [* a NIMBY problem].
Other options might be using one of the bigger current Nursing homes and moving the well patients to other Nursing Homes temporarily.
Acacia House at Tarcoola for example..

An important part of such planning would be to address this issue now by the Council
to involve Health officials from Melbourne and the Base Hospital.
A working group and Community consultation now is better than trying to do it in a rush in an actual emergency.

In regards to Murchison a case could also be made for reorganising it from a Rotary viewpoint as a standalone backup to the Hospital for elderly people needing a place to stay and recover for 1-3 moths pist medical issues like minor CVA’s and also complicated operation recovery.
This could only be done if the patiens were guaranteed to either go home or have a guaranteed admission date to one of the other longer term nursing homes around Shepparton.
This would take a lot of pressure off the GVBH and make transfers from Hospital to permanent Nursing care much less fraught with grief and pressure.

Thoughts on management of Covid crisis for CEO and Quality and Clinical Governance review.
Already seems to be well covered
Covid Response
SRV has an action plan in response to a possible Covid 19 outbreak.
It is a case of when, not if we have our first outbreak given the evolving dynamics in Melbourne.
Our ability to act is tempered by a series of unknowns.
How many other people and places are being affected at the same time?
What help will be available from Local resources , State resources and Federal resources?
We seem to be moving from small trackable outbreaks to a much larger out of control outbreak.
The issues we have to consider as a Quality and Control Review Panel with our Executive action plan is somewhat similar to having the ACAS reviews of our institution plans.

A Covid outbreak will arrive when we have our first positive diagnosis on a swab or saliva sample of a Resident, Staff member or Family Member who has been visiting the facility.
This may be independently notified to us through the DHS, the involved person or their GP or hospital or be picked up by our testing procedures.

On notification the information must be delivered to the CEO and President of the Board and the ECM in charge. The action plan will then commence which will involve putting SRV into full lockdown mode and notifying all relevant stakeholders. Personal Privacy takes a back step to Community Need to Know.
All staff need to be notified and respond by text or e mail or phone. We will need extra office staff.
DHS needs to be notified to arrange contact tracing and activate their help. The local Hospital, Police, Ambulance and other Health Services and Services Providers need to be notified. Doctors, Physios, Pathology and X-Ray Services.
Residents need to be informed at all facilities. Residents families have to be notified as well.
The media will be involved which will be the role for the CEO and President.
The response team has a role to help identify all contacts. This will involve taking a history, in full PPE, from the isolated Resident or staff member if possible. Infected Family members would be best contacted by phone. Knowledge of whom to isolate and where to isolate is dependent on this knowledge.
The breakdown of responses is thus.
1. Infected Resident confirmed. Isolate in room. All staff to wear full PPE when attending and all material in the room to be disposed of according to plan.
There will hopefully be a GVH unit who will take the patient for further assessment and isolation outside of the facility for 14 days. They should be sent for assessment and management there.
If the Hospital is overloaded and a decision is forced on us to readmit the resident and put our staff and elderly patients at a greater risk of infection and death this needs to be fully documented for future reference.
Any infected patient taken back into our frail community without such instruction puts us at risk of the new Legislation and future legal action for failure of duty to care to our residents.
Any Resident who is taken back in or is unable to be transferred due to a lack of Government resources should be isolated in a special unit or ward or house separate to their original dwelling place and managed by a dedicated skeleton staff of well protected workers set up to manage this patient or patients.
2. At risk residents, the resident next door, the friend, the table companions etc need to self-isolate fully for 14 days and staff must use PPE attending them. Full precautions with all clothing, food and personal objects.

3. Not at risk residents need to go into 2 weeks self-isolation as well with full care.
The issue is of separating these two groups as well if possible and if practical.
They should be managed by 2 different teams of skeleton staff as further infections in the affected group would not affect the staff members there but those staff members would not have contact with the non at risk patients and their staff..
The facility would have to be split into 2 functioning units for 14 days.
Or longer.
4. Infected staff member. A major concern due to mobility and time in contact.
We need as full a history of contacts as possible, both from the staff member and those working with them. All patients and staff would have to be considered at risk. Patients into lockdown.
A new skeleton staff in place with full PPE for 14 days.
5. At risk staff members. Home for 14 days.
6. Not at risk staff members could be part of the new staff.
Daily temperature checking and three swabs, initial one and two weeks for all involved.
A lot of measures already in the plan for cleaning etc are assumed to be in place in this draft for the sake of brevity.
In summary we are not alone, there will be a lot of help in a time of emergency. There are inherent risks in this out break first and foremost to our residents, their families and our staff.
Compassion will be sorely tested but has to be shown at all times interspersed with the need to protect the vulnerable.
Managing palliative situations and prolonged family separation are the most difficult and upsetting choice to be made. Within this prison of care there may be some measures to help families without exposing them to extra risk. Full PPE and a short face to face visit perhaps. I know it would be my preferred choice.


1. Obama targets Flynn, Biden provides the pretext (Logan Act)
2. Comey gleefully ambushes Flynn in the first days of the new administration
3. Strzok and Pientka don’t make it clear Flynn is a target
4. Strzok and Pientka apparently say Flynn didn’t lie
5. Lisa Page and one of her stable of lovers incl “First we F*ck Flynn” McCabe doctor Flynn’s 302
6. Weissmann, a pathetic thug pretending to be a lawyer, uses the 302 to threaten Flynn and his family in a continuation of the failed coup d’etat led by Mueller. Flynn – a patriot – refuses to roll over on POTUS
7. Flynn’s own attorneys – DC big wigs – betray Flynn
8. Brandon Van Grack, apparently Weissmann’s apprentice , never discloses exculpatory evidence and deceives the court about targeting Flynn’s son
8. Flynn pleads guilty before corrupt judge Contreras who has personal relationship with Strzok
9. Sullivan takes over the case and , in a 180 degree reversal from his oversight of the Ted Stevens case, becomes a formidable Flynn adversary and calls Flynn a traitor in open court.

Yeah, it’s a conspiracy.regitiger says:
June 25, 2020 at 6:42 pm

In the “spirit” of BOGEYFREE, I have roughly formed A LIST…of conspirators/co-conspirators.

I would invite anyone here to add to the list …I will call it the OBAMAGATE CRIMINALS. (OC)

The Coup manufactured against this president and his associates AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE is the most egregious abuse of power and the most prodigious criminal act in American history.

The following list of persons are likely conspirators directly involved in this coup or aided and enabled it by intentionally ignoring red flags and are thus named co-conspirators:
(there is no order priority in this list)


Bill Taylor
Eric Ciaramella
Andrew Weissmann
Christopher Wray
Bruce Ohr
Nellie Ohr
Sir Richard Dearlove
Joseph Mifsud
Alexander Downer
Stefan “The Walrus” Halper
Azra Turk
Gina Haspel
Sessions (patsy?)
James E. Boasberg
SCJ Roberts

early version heat

The planet radiates the heat it receives back to space.
If it gets closer to the sun and hotter it radiates more back.
As it cools at night it radiates less as it’s temperature drops.
It is not a battery and it does not store heat in the oceans selectively
of its own accord.
It follows the rules of physics.

Where we run into problems is in how the energy moves and transfers between the 3 different layers of the earth, atmosphere, ocean and earth; gas, liquid and solid.
Each substance is penetrated to a certain degree and vary in the degree they heat up to and how they distribute the heat they receive brpefore sending it back to space, which it must do.

We have a TOA radiating temperature that is mutable only in that the atmosphere has GHG that temporarily absorb a tiny fraction of the energy when receiving sunlight in the daytime.
A very small amount and only as the sun rises overhead.

This gives the atmosphere the temperature as the GHG transfer some of that energy to the O2 and NO2.
– This process is incredibly quick and once established (Peaked) cannot keep taking energy energy out and storing it somewhere. In fact after maximum insulation and temp rise for the next 18 hours it is radiating that heat back to space commensurate to how high it went up in the first place.

With more CO2 in the air, and everything else being equal (practically it never is), the air temperature curve moves ever so slightly over to the new level of GHG.
A doubling of CO2 produces a 1C temperature rise overall.
The nights become a little warmer, the days a little warmer, but the amount of sunlight coming in and out overall does not change.

This may sound like heresy but either you follow the physics or you do not.
Either energy in equals energy out and this applies everywhere; to snowball earth, the moon , the planets, etc or it doesn’t.
Over any 24 hour period there cannot be any real TOA discrepancy at all.

The oceans did not invent lithium batteries to store it in.
There are no batteries.
The ocean is not a battery.
The atmosphere is not a battery.
TOA imbalance demands a battery, science denies a battery.

This misunderstanding needs to be corrected one person at a time.
June 23, 2020 at 4:31 am

“With increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, there is an imbalance in energy flows in and out of the earth system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA): the greenhouse gases increasingly trap more radiation and hence create warming (Solomon et al. 2007; Trenberth et al. 2009). “

“model-based estimates of TOA energy imbalance [from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4)]“
Why do we have to use a model when we can easily measure it with satellites one may well ask rhetorically?
If, I repeat if, we can easily measure it with satellites we would not need to use models. Roy could just give us the monthly and yearly figures.
We use models because the satellite constraints mean the figures are extremely unreliable, large SD, hence we can use models and plug in just the right parameters to give an imbalance matching our imbalance theories.
“TOA measurements of radiation from space can track changes over time but lack absolute accuracy.“

But the models used are based on OHC.
“Most ocean-only OHC analyses extend to only 700-m depth, have large discrepancies among the rates of change of OHC, and do not resolve interannual variability adequately to capture ENSO and volcanic eruption effects,”

So there we have it, an unphysical idea that the earth can do something no other celestial body can do, store energy every day in a battery and warm up the whole world.
Even though it has been warmed and radiated that warmth every day for 4 billion years according to the rules of physics.
Adding extra GHG causes a constant storage of energy from the sun, which when humans add it Grows an arm and a leg and works as a thousand year battery.
No matter that the rest of the universe demands that energy back, earth resists.

The earth’s atmosphere gets hotter with GHG not because of storage batteries but simple physics. It absorbs (delays in transit) an extra small minute amount of energy for 6 hours a day as the sun heats it up. Then it radiates more than it receives back to space for 18 hours while the sun heats up the rest.
The ocean absorbs a little bit more as the air is a little bit warmer, not much and then radiates it back as well.
The planet sums it all up and sends it all back out equal to that in.
Apart from that little insulated house.

Are you looking for Causation or Blame?

I get the point that there are
Events caused by Anthropogenic effects
Events caused by Anthropogenic Climate Change
and that the general effect of the latter will cause more harm than the more localised effect of the former.

Attribution of either is complicated leading to a moral and scientific issue.
Are you looking for Causation or Blame?
One is a scientific approach and one a moral approach.

One can of course do both, find a cause and find blame in the same event.
This is helped by using story line approaches as they incorporate a moral lesson in their very definition.
“given that an event has occurred, how might climate change have influenced this event?”

“The claim is that in trying to separate the human influence from the natural variability of weather, extreme event attribution creates a new nature-culture divide.”
People have looked for causation in weather for ever. A rare event, did something I did cause that weather effect? People have always wanted to attribute causation and blame their actions or lack of them to explain misfortunes and occasionally good luck.
Once you attribute Blame or Causation to human action you open a divide between those who want to believe [naturalists] and those who want to understand [culture/science].

“The problem here is that extreme event attribution typically tries to understand how the event might be different because of anthropogenic-driven climate change,”
Even here what you are saying is that extreme events are natural and that in your view human causation might make it worse.
I say worse because if human causation ever made things better you would not feel concerned to investigate it further.
Hence the problem of trying to prove that rare extreme events are ever capable of offering proof of climate warming.
“if we don’t distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences, how do you then avoid people simply concluding that it’s natural, or using this to argue that it’s natural?”
Hence the crux of the matter, do we tell them a story line to emphasis how bad we believe it may be and only choose, always, the bad side of that story line for emphasis?
– Or do we tell them the truth.

There will be a number of consequences that will become self evident in time.
We cannot prove this conclusively now but believe it to be so.
We are working on improving our attribution to everyone’s satisfaction.
We are not looking to blame or shame anyone.


angech says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
June 6, 2020 at 11:35 pm
ATTP are we reading this the same way?

“The key results are that for long-timescales (many decades) internal variability contributes little to the total uncertainty (essentially, it averages out).”

I do not see this as the key finding, rather a statement of the parameters being put in.
By definition internal variability is defined as fluctuations around some predetermined real value.
As time goes by the fluctuations balance out and the true value is revealed shed of dross. In other words it must always reduce to zero

Atomsk’s Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan. May 27
“Update thread citing published studies, along with comments debunking Judith Curry’s cherry-picking in the service of ideologically-motivated denialism on hydroxychloroquine:“

Missing in action. Why?
Lancelet study Chloroquine Debunked
New England Journal of medicine. Debunked same author

Most of the studies you quote have been extremely hastily put together with pal not peer review and rushed into print.
They all have massive flaws consequent.
As they fall apart, one by one, will you guarantee to return here and issue a mea culpa for your mudslinging?

The fact that you’re still willfully ignoring the fact that previously reputable Journals have thrown science out the window is expected from a committed ideologue.

How to redeem a scrap of integrity, if you ever wanted.
Be more skeptical in the right way.
Put up lists of both sides.
Just for fun and fairness.
There are papers out there for hydroxychloroquine.
Give their references too.

As an aside, Atom, I was extremely unbelieving at first based on my medical training. Chloroquine was an antimalarial drug. And a cramp treatment.
Viruses and bacteria or parasites are extremely different and require different mechanisms of treatment.
The medications being for totally different reasons would normally never treat both types of life forms.
My rationale for non belief was based on science, what I had been taught up until that moment.

That changed when I learnt of the mechanisms of interfering with viral RNA reproduction in cells. Scientifically proven.
Are you aware of that?
Of course you are, petal.
Research dating back to 2004 or earlier as an antiviral.
Are you aware of that?
If not, why not?

Why knock the study of it as a helpful treatment when we have precious little else?
You show a great interest in scientific topics.
You certainly have a skeptical mind, with blinkers on.

If the drug does work you would have to thank Trump for helping promote it.
Guess your attitude is best summed up by better millions die than Trump gets any credit, even if vicarious ( He did not invent it though he might take credit).
What a great and commendable attitude, man.

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Arctic Ice

I find the the trend in sea ice age over the last ten years or so a conceptually difficult metric.
Ine of the problems as I have mentioned before is that the less ice you have to start with the less the percentage of multi year ice appears to be in a good recovery year.
Counter intuitively this means that years with low percentage multi year ice are actually making good recoveries.
This might help explain the contradiction between a 10 year pause in ice volumes, sought of a recovery in a way from the previous high falls and a downwards trend in multi year ice for 10 years which also fits in with recovering, not diminishing ice in the Arctic?