Daily Archives: October 27, 2015

angech (Comment #140352)

angech (Comment #140352)

Carping,
All of you are choosing your definitions of Prediction and Projection as a means to an ends.

lucia (Comment #140334)at least gives a dictionary reference

Predict, prophesy, foresee, forecast mean to know or tell (usually correctly) beforehand what will happen. To predict is usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shrewd inference from facts or experience: The astronomers can predict an eclipse;it may, however, be used without the implication of underlying knowledge or expertise:

So When Gavin says
” [Carrick (Comment #140333)] This is how Gavin distinguishes them::
Prediction A much broader category of scientific statement, that might apply to undiscovered information about the past, present or future, but that implies a complete specification of the circumstances under which X would be expected. The anticipated result of a well designed lab experiment is a prediction, the prediction of general relativity concerning Mercury etc. Predictions are the mainstay of the scientific method.”

He is completely up the creek. A prediction is a forecast of the future [sorry Lucia] which may or may not be made with information, which may be made with a gut feeling, poor chickens.
It can have a varying degree of likelihood, based on the relevance of any information used and the person making it but of course does not have to have any likelihood whatsoever.
and does not have to have any basis in reality whatsoever. Hence Nick Stokes gets it right when saying a committee designs the input, sorry elephant, not modelers, after all knowing is not a prerequisite. Has Nick been on any committees in the past?
So many wrong comments to dissect here but I have a 60 K bike ride x2 today.
Will get back.