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December 9, 2017 at 3:10 am
From Paul’s site
“Given your results, what do they imply for the climate sensitivity of the system at the moment. Given that the widely used figure in models is around 3C and you have found them under-
predicting, I assume the ECS from your work would be in the 3.5-4C range?
Yes our constrained central estimate of ECS is 3.7.”
The ECS he uses [I thought we just had a big discussion where you guys said you cannot work out ECS?? practically like this but….] is on average 3.7 instead of the Climate models 3.0.
Plug this into the graphs and you get a 27% higher rate of increase.
Not able to afford the paid look so what is studiously not mentioned here is what the “recent” in Earth’s recent observational energy budget refers to.
Please do not tell me that they picked the 3 most recent El Nino years and then worked out an energy budget and ECS on those 3 atypically hot years.
Or just the last 5 years.
Please tell me it refers to the budget worked out from 2000 at least.
…and Then There’s Physics says: November 29, 2017 at 4:13 pm
“We can estimate the actual change in radiative forcing and then relate that to the equivalent change in atmospheric CO2, to then produce an estimate of the TCR/ECS. This is essentially what Nic Lewis’s work does”
Presumably not only Lewis but Brown is working out ECS.
A higher ECS, as in this case, gives a greater temperature rise for a doubling of CO2.
The only difference being one uses a long term study of temps and the other a short term study of temps to determine the ECS.
I imagine this study could be done for a number of recent observational ranges.
If one was to choose the 5 years from 2007 to 2012 for comparison the ECS may well have been below 2.0.
Presuming the paper was done on the last 5 years of observation which is a very uneducated guess on my part.
Do we know which time frame the recent observations were done in?