Arctic Ice

I find the the trend in sea ice age over the last ten years or so a conceptually difficult metric.
Ine of the problems as I have mentioned before is that the less ice you have to start with the less the percentage of multi year ice appears to be in a good recovery year.
Counter intuitively this means that years with low percentage multi year ice are actually making good recoveries.
This might help explain the contradiction between a 10 year pause in ice volumes, sought of a recovery in a way from the previous high falls and a downwards trend in multi year ice for 10 years which also fits in with recovering, not diminishing ice in the Arctic?

La Casa di Signore Mancini

La Casa di Signore Mancini
This may prove to be a seminal work.
I intend to build a memory castle out of ordinary pieces of bricks and mortar that anyone can use.
For purposes of education, memory training, entertainment and refreshment.
The house may yet change in it’s nature, a bit like the Japanese walking castle and different people
may end up with a different construct with different uses altogether.
I envisage that some will be able to use algorithms and machine learning to join human and artificial intelligence ideas together.
Grandiose ideas but as usual oaks are born from tiny acorns.
The name is fictional and related to my current study of Italian where I have used a very basic form to help people try to learn Italian.
It did not really work though the potential was there because the basic principles were to hard to install in 2 lessons.

So from scratch
English being my native language others will have to transfer it into their own styles but it should be possible and logically consistent.
The idea of a memory palace varies a little from being an artificial construct, in this case,
to a much more practical use of ones own houses, schools, workplaces and towns.
To marry the two is not possible but one can subsist in the other, the choice of which way you wish to do it is up to you.
Remember all doors have two sides and inside for one idea is outside for the other in a binary world at least.
Other worlds, parallel universes and time issues etc can all be investigated here later if you wish.
My preference, knowing as I said that it is really only a matter of perspective is to address it from a fixed point, Signor Mancini’s Casa.

An entrance, a lobby, receptionists and sit down computer log in screens and keyboards [or voice activated] await centrally.
An elevator shaft to floors above and below.
A circular construct with 24 doors.
Why 24.
Divides by 2,3,4.
Is large enough for most Western Languages to encompass most letters.
Provides enough sectors to cope with a large range of topics.
Now the tricky part, traveling from one room or one floor to another.
Recording where one has traveled.
The first is easy.
Enter the lobby and sit down at your desk.
One can either go and ask for help, at reception and use the elevators and aides there.
Or secondly, using Star Trek technology, on your desk select the location you wish,
press enter and the house will phase you to the right floor.

Lets try Italian again.
Italian floor.
Languages or regions.
Go to the language floor, for anglophones, English speakers.
Here the concierge is Signor Mancini.
Let’s get started.

Overview, product information, Instructions.
First rule you have to read the Instructions but after the first few times , on most floors you can skip this step.
For Italian there are several provisos.
No-one can speak Italian perfectly because there are thousands of dialects.
People in different regions do not even speak on the same tenses as in other areas.
Nonetheless in 1892 with the unification of Italy [see Italian History] a standardised written Italian was introduced
which most of the people use to communicate with each other.
Language is a multi dimensional skill which is not all verbal.
Italian uses a lot of gesturing to accompany and give meaning to what they are saying and can transform a seeming
compliment to a maladetto [rude word] in an instant.

As mentioned in the introduction everything has at least two sides.
Here a second side or outside inside concept is the English speaker, yourself, trying to learn.
English is a bastardised language which has led to great functionality.
All languages are constructs of previous languages and experiences.
Italian and English are not dissimilar in that respect.
Italian is a complete language however combining one basic root Latin.
Easy to speak but lacking the range of expressions available in a 4 culture language.
For people with a different perspective, Chines or Indian say the root language is missing.
Many more words and idioms have to be learnt to achieve proficiency.

One way to learn Os to totally reprogram the language part of the brain into the new language.
Learn it from scratch and only understand the comparisons later.
Repetition is the second way.
Practicing with a more fluent person in speaking is the third.
Unfortunately, in the house, there is only the room and what you can put in it.
A simulacrum is beyond most people at this stage.

Of the various course to learn I would approach Italian in this way.
The language is Latin Based composed of subject/object, verbs [actions]
The function of all language is to ask a question and get a response.
Cause and effect as the Merovingian would say.

Language is always best learnt from the past to the present to the future.
ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny Ernst Haeckel *. Meckel–Serres law.
We can only speak truly about actions that have happened in the past or thoughts that we have had in the past.
One represents a reality of what has happened and the other a reality of what we though had happened in the past.
The vast gap between thought and action, separated by only a spark of initiation,
drives all thought language and action.
The classic idea of what comes first, thought or action as exemplified in Avere and Essere by Erich Fromm.

Latin is a common root between English and Italian and must always be considered when study and understanding the two languages.
It enters the English Language in at least 4 different phases.
The Roman Invaders circa 55 BC.
Vallum Hadriani Proto-Germanic borrowing from Latin. Etymology
From vallus (“stake, palisade, point”), from Proto-Indo-European *wel- (“to turn, wind, roll”).

vallo Compound of imperative (tu form) of andare and lo.
Old Latin *moerus, *moiros, from Proto-Indo-European *mey- (“to strengthen”).
muro m (plural muros)
wall (stone structure built for defense) Synonym: muralla wall (stone structure built for delimitation) Synonyms: valado, valo
Otherwise the masculine plural muri is used: I muri hanno orecchie. ? The walls have ears.
The feminine plural mura denotes the walls of a town, castle or similar, viewed collectively:
Le mura di Roma hanno dodici porte. ? Rome’s walls have twelve gates.
murare (transitive) to wall up (transitive) to embed into a wall
From *moiros, from Proto-Indo-European *mey- (“to fix, to build fortifications or fences”), see also Latin m?n?re (“to protect”), Old Norse -mæri (“border-land, boundary”), Old English mære (“landmark, border, boundary”). See also Sanskrit ???? (múr, “wall”), Sanskrit ??? (mura, “surrounding, encircling, enclosing”).

In defense of Roger Pielke jun

I get the drift that the scenario itself is not the outcome
and that the scenario does not have to be real.
and that therefore, a scenario may not be a prediction, only a conditional prediction.

The problem is that you cannot usefully cleave [split] a scenario and a prediction in this way without losing the meaning of both words.

For your analogy I agree that one does not usually try to prove the precept is wrong to show that the outcome is wrong.
That is because a precept or scenario is not falsifiable, You determine the input.
If one uses a different input one would would have to put up a different output.
A scenario can only be a scenario if it is predicating [and hence predicting] a future outcome.

If the situation the scenario is attempting to mimic is shown by time to be different to the assumptions you used that is not a failure of the scenario.
Reality is a different scenario and you cannot falsify either by comparing the outcomes.

RP and I have never tried ” to claim a conditional projection failed, since they claim a predicted scenario didn’t occur.”
It is wrong to say that.
A more apt analogy would be that the child placed it’s hand on the hot stove and it did not burn.

In this case the fact that you claimed the stove was hot enough to burn the child’s hand is wrong.
You did not put enough wood in the fire [wrong assumptions] or did not light the match [check the starting conditions were as you said] or did not run it long enough [dodgy thermometers].

I do not mind people bagging my arguments but I do mind people bagging their opponents unjustly.
Fair enough with me, i make misunderstandings.
Roger Pielke is a true scientist, brought up in a scientific family and background and does not make basic misunderstandings of scenario’s and it is just plain wrong to say that he does.

“If there’s warming then I think you still need some kind of flux imbalance. My understanding is that quite soon after a perturbation (say, an increase in atmospheric CO2) the LW fluxes can return to balance, but the cloud feedback leads to an imbalance in the SW fluxes, which then dominates the subsequent warming.”
izen “The increase in surface temperature is a result in the greater thermalisation of OLR from the surface in the lower layers of the atmosphere, not in a imbalance in the energy flux for the whole system.”

“If there’s warming then I think you still need some kind of flux imbalance” This bit is very true but emphasises the problem raised by Izen.
If warming is occurring there must be a flux imbalance.
We see this every day when the sun comes up. The GHG concentration does not change **[much] but the atmosphere heats up and the radiating layer goes much further outward.
So some energy has been garnished from the sun and thermalised.

But what happens when the heat input stabilizes say just after midday[** more provisos].
For a short period of tome the energy in equals the energy out as everything is in balance.
Then the radiating layer contracts as the atmosphere cools.

Does the CO2 level affect this pattern? No [* more provisos].
What it does affect though is the amount of atmospheric thermalisation that day.
The atmosphere will be warmer with more CO2 in it.
Not in 100 years but at that lovely moment of equibrilation.
Which occurs every day, usually after midday, though it might occur several times around that time due to albedo cloud changes.

ATTP “quite soon after a perturbation (say, an increase in atmospheric CO2) the LW fluxes can return to balance,”
” but the cloud feedback leads to an imbalance in the SW fluxes, which then dominates the subsequent warming.”

Not sure of this. Feedbacks occur including clouds which is more part of the expected imbalance due to the change in incoming heat.
The SW fluxes can only be variable due to the variable albedo? They temporarily alter the actual heat input which is why you might have several moments of equilibrium usually after midday. The longterm feedback effect amplification is more due to increased GHG [water vapour] in the air raising the ECS not the SW effects.