Would you mind explaining how and where the Total outgoing IR to space is calculated? 240 W/M2 but where is the meter located?
The energy budget works on the amount of energy calculated on its way to the earths surface and at the earths surface.
But the outgoing IR to space is not coming from the surface.
That has to be the emitted surface radiation, 395 W/M 2.
The radiation emitted to space is the radiation out at the TOA.
This is a concern because any radiation measured or assumed to be 240 W/M 2 at a level of 100 km [TOA surface area 526.2 million km² Radius: 6,471 km].
cannot be the same as radiation measured at the Earth Surface area [510.1 million km² Radius: 6,371 km.
The maths in the energy budget just becomes wrong.
If the outgoing energy has been adjusted to earth circumference the true TIA must be higher and then would not agree with what your instruments measure in terms of outgoing flux.
So are the instruments you use measuring true outgoing radiation at TOA
which is per square meter of the TOA surface area, what I would expect.
If so how can anyone use this figure 240 W/M2 to balance an energy equation based on square meters at earth Surface level.
I am sorry to be a nuisance.
You have offered to try to get the message across on IR which I hopefully get.
Could you please point out where the basic error I am making is?Enough already.
I do not care what religion anyone is.
That is their business, right or wrong.
I do not care how religion treats science.
Their gain or loss.
Discuss the science or lack of it only.
I do know that most nearly all science has evolved within the religious frameworks of nearly all societies.
Zoroastrian, Hindu, Chinese, Aztec, Arabic as in Jewish, Christian and Moslem in order of appearance. Multiple other religions current and extinguished have had scientists in their ranks.
Our greatest modern scientists in the western world have had strong religious beliefs, Galileo and Newton for starters.
I think we should treat our great scientists with the respect they deserve for the work they have done. Christy and Spencer should probably get a Nobel Prize for the more than 30 years of dedicated work and theorizing they have put in.
Thank you DG for your comments which were expressed much better.
Can we please drop the religious attacks and concentrate on the science” Much of the first part of Dr. Ollila’s article is just fine. His objection to the diagram is introduced with the following statement, which those who hold similar views to his will be triggered by:
“The obvious reason for the GH effect seems to be the downward infrared radiation from the atmosphere to the surface and its magnitude is 345 W/m2. Therefore, the surface absorbs totally 165 (solar) + 345 (downward infrared from the atmosphere) = 510 W/m2.“
But this is where the problem with ambiguous wording comes in. The atmosphere is not, strictly speaking, adding more [“New”] energy to the surface. It is merely returning a portion of the atmosphere-absorbed solar, infrared, and convective transport energy back to the surface in the form of infrared energy.
As shown in Fig. 2, the surface is still emitting more IR energy than the atmosphere is returning to the surface, resulting in net surface loss of [395 – 345 =] 50 W/m2 of infrared energy. And, as previously mentioned, all energy fluxes at the surface balance.
And this is what our intuition tells us should be happening: the surface is warmed by sunlight, and cooled by the loss of IR energy (plus moist and dry convective cooling of the surface of 91 and 24 W/m2, respectively.)”
Therefore, the surface absorbs totally 165 (solar) + 345 (downward infrared from the atmosphere) = 510 W/m2.“ Yes
the surface is still emitting more IR energy than the atmosphere is returning to the surface, resulting in net surface loss of [395 – 345 =] 50 W/m2 of infrared energy. Yes
Plus (plus moist and dry convective cooling of the surface of 91 and 24 W/m2, respectively.)” = 165 W/M-2 The surface absorbed solar radiation] Yes
So far I agree with both of you?
But Ollila” The difference between the radiation to the surface and the net solar radiation is 510 – 240 = 270 Wm-2. The real GH warming effect is right here: it is 270 Wm-2 because it is the extra energy warming the Earth’s surface in addition to the net solar energy.”
This is the magical energy from nowhere step you are referring to? Because , as you say, The atmosphere is not, strictly speaking, adding more [“New”] energy to the surface.
Ollila actually acknowledges this in his article ” According to the energy conversation law, energy cannot be created from the void. According to the same law, energy does not disappear, but it can change its form.” but ploughs ahead.
“The final step is that we must find out what is the mechanism creating this infrared radiation from the atmosphere. According to the IPCC’s definition, the GH effect is caused by the GH gases and clouds which absorb infrared radiation of 155 Wm-2 emitted by the surface and which they further radiate to the surface. This same figure has been applied by the research group of Gavin Schmidt calculating the contributions of GH gases and clouds. As we can see there is a problem – and a very big problem – in the IPCC’s GH effect definition: the absorbed energy of 155 Wm-2 cannot radiate to the surface 345 Wm-2 or even 270 Wm-2.”
Here I go off the rails.
“If we were to represent these infrared energy flows in Fig. 1 more completely, there would be a nearly infinite number of red arrows, both upward and downward, connecting every vanishingly-thin layer of atmosphere with every other vanishingly thin layer. Those are the flows that are happening continuously in the atmosphere.”
I presume that the ” net surface loss of [395 – 345 =] 50 W/m2 of infrared energy.” which is all that is left over when “moist and dry convective cooling of the surface of 91 and 24 W/m2, respectively.” is removed from the “initial surface absorbs totally 165 (solar)” is actually doing far more than rebounding just once and going off into space. There would be a limiting factor at 345 W/M-2 which is how much energy bounces back repeatedly until it can escape?
Dr Ollila’s summary of heat sources
” it is easy to name the two other energy sources which are needed for causing the GH effect namely latent heating 91 Wm-2 and sensible heating 24 Wm-2, which make 270 Wm-2 with the longwave absorption of 155 Wm-2. When the solar radiation absorption of 75 Wm-2 by the atmosphere will be added to these three GH effect sources, the sum is 345 Wm2.”
explains why it is a little more complicated than that in that some of the IR comes from the effects of the IR radiation from other parts of the atmosphere but I am not sure where he gets the longwave absorption of 155 Wm-2.
It is the fact that the surface emission is higher than the TOA radiation to space so energy [quite a lot] must somehow be be being trapped in the atmosphere.
“Now, I have spent at least a couple of hours trying to follow his line of reasoning, and I cannot.”
Dr Ollila’s reasoning “Here is the point: the IPCC’s definition means that the LW absorption of 155 Wm-2 could create radiation of 270 Wm-2 which is impossible.”
“The Role of Earth Radiation Budget Studies in Climate and General Circulation Research“ Ramanathan
The greenhouse effect. The estimates of the outgoing longwave radiation also lead to quantitative inferences about the atmospheric greenhouse effect. At a globally averaged temperature of 15°C the surface emits about 390 W m -2, while according to satellites, the long-wave radiation escaping to space is only 237 W m -2. Thus the absorption and emission of long-wave radiation by the intervening atmospheric gases and clouds cause a net reduction of about 150 W m -2 in the radiation emitted to space. This trapping effect of radiation, referred to as the greenhouse effect, plays a dominant role in governing the temperature of the planet.”‘
Dr Ollila has a point. the surface emits about 390 W m -2, the long-wave radiation escaping to space is said to be only 237 W m -2. [where ??TOA or earth’s surface vitally important]
How can anybody say this ” a net reduction of about 150 W m -2 in the radiation emitted to space.”
The earth has had Greenhouses gases for over 2 billion years, possibly 4 billion.
How hot should we be if our planet can keep trapping 150W/M-2 for 2 billion years?
1 metre by 1 metre by 1 metre concrete block floating in outer space.
The block is insulated on four sides, a perfect insulator, no heat at all is lost from the four insulated sides.
the emissivity “epsilon” and absorptivity across the spectrum are both 0.95.
the thermal conductivity “k” of the concrete is equal to 0.8 watts per metre per kelvin (0.8 W/m K^-1)
it gets full-time sunshine on the front side at a rate of 1360 watts per square metre (W/m2).
what will be the temperature T_hot of the hot side and the temperature T_cold of the opposite cold side?
At a 1 molecule thinness the temperature on both sides would be equal hence half as hot as expected if the back surface was also insulated. 65.67C
At a million metres the back surface would be at a very low temperature just above 62 K.
This would be enough to drain the minute amount of energy that makes it across the block.
Th surface of the block receiving radiation has to heat up to a higher temperature to force heat across the concrete gradient. The maximum it can heat to is double the energy it absorbs.
The soldering iron I think someone referred to it as.
129.77 C or 512.92K is the Temp of the hot side.
Similar range to the surface of the moon different albedo.
The cold side is more difficult. The bulk of the thermal mass built up by absorption of energy is at the heated end which radiates most of the radiation back out.
The small amount that “conducts” 0.8 watts per metre per kelvin finally gives that level to the other side which immediately radiates it into space giving it a temp of -210.4 C or 62.75 K