Costs associated trip to Darwin

Dear Fellow Directors     [Bronwyn and David]     ,

I have recently spent 4 days in Darwin helping sort out some of William’s medical and living problems.

Costs incurred were,

The flight to and from Darwin from Melbourne         $818.98
The hire car and insurance                                   $388.50 plus$42.33 petrol
A visit to Paul Maher lawyer re Trust                     Account to be sent to Tong Luck Trust
Clothes, dental products                                       $187 [126, 7.50, 53.90]
2 spare keys for the unit downstairs.                      $16
Respiratory mask and filters                                 $303.28
Dental visits x2   Nightcliff                                     $230  to be paid, $100 to me re                                                                                  16/10/2018 visit, $130 to dentist                                                                              re 19/10/2018 visit.

I would like to request that the Dental Bills are forwarded as they come in to Bronwyn to arrange payment. This will be reasonably expensive unfortunately as he has about 15 fillings, possibly a crown and several teeth stumps to extract. Possibly 3-5,000 over the next 8 months. I will speak to the dentist Monday re emailing the bills

I am happy to pay the costs of the trip part  this time, airfares and car, but will seek reimbursement of these costs on subsequent visits.

I have receipts for some and credit card details for the others if needed. Liz is busy typing up a summary of the visit.

Looking forward to discussing this and some of the other issues from the visit if you can give me a call and we will have to work out a TLT meeting fairly soon.

Yours Sincerely , Harry.

Viv W

My name is Elizabeth Lee. One of my husband’s favourite Aunt’s has asked me to do a small introduction today at the launch of yet another amazing book. So here is a part of her story, mainly an understanding of her,  why she has chosen this story to tell is up to her.

Vivienne Worthington, nee Gathercole, was one of 6 children of Harold and May Gathercole, long term Panton Hill residents. Her families connections go back to the early days of Panton Hill , but obviously not as far back as some, or we would be talking about Gathercole Hill instead. Vivienne spent most of her early life up to 20 here and still returned with her family to the farm at Alma road to see her Mum and Dad every Christmas and in between for 40 years.

Her interest was piqued by coming across a member of the Panton family and realising that Panton Hill had a beginning and history that she was not aware of and many a tale to tell. who were the first settlers, who were the Panton’s, how did the village get it’s name, what happened to them and others in those times and since.

Vivienne was helped in her endeavors by work she had previously done locally on her family tree which led to a lot of local genealogical knowledge.Growing up in Panton Hill she knew people to talk to and had also absorbed  a lot of local knowledge on places in the area and which sites to look up information on.

Vivienne’s passion for writing and history has developed later in her life after meeting her second husband and having the time to devote to writing which he supported. She is one of those people who has taken to the computer age with gusto developing dormant abilities.  She has written a book on the Eureka stockade from a viewpoint of the women involved and one on the Pioneer Bus company, both being related to family members who had involvement. This book fills in an important part of the early pioneering history of this area and community and the people who helped create it .

Serendipity is the term for unexpected fortunate occurrences. I think I will find the book more interesting due to connections with Shepparton where we live to Panton Hill. One of the chemists here for many years was a Panton. And the McPherson family who settled here and ran our newspapers were among the earliest settlers of Panton Hill.

Vivienne has produced another good book to digest.  has developed an easy reading style which encompasses a lot of research yet is still enjoyable to read.
With no further ado I present Mrs Vivienne Worthington.






  • angech says:

    1. “Although CO2 absorbs thermal radiation from the Earth, it emits more. Carbon dioxide is in thermal deficit in terms of radiative balance.”
    CO2 is not the sun. It is not an energy production molecule.
    CO2 absorbs energy, from LW or from collisions. It releases same.
    It cannot emit more than it absorbs in a re-energising environment [energy from the sun.

  • angech says:

    gymnosperm says: October 8, 2018 at 3:34 pm “Trouble is, you’re both right.”
    We have the problem that Roger believes that all is due to Pressure, gravity height and Brandon that CO2 causes all the fuss.
    Impressive scientific arguments for both sides.
    Let us call it a draw with some acknowledgement of Brandon’s argument [yuk].

  • angech says:

    The reality is that pressure, gravity height acting on a body of air of known composition does, must determine the temperature[s] of said body of air.
    However said body of air will differ markedly if its composition included greenhouse gases of any variety, including CO2.
    Not exactly noted by Nikolic but not disputed by him either.
    In other words the heat retaining capacity of CO2 alters the temperature and the height at which CO2 emits to space.
    It does not happen in a vacuum.
    The O2 and N do heat up by collision and receive and transmit energy by collision to and with CO2 molecules.
    You are both right.
    Yeah, as my teenage son would say.
    Acknowledgements welcome.



similar confusing

chiodo nail

also unga from which we get fingernail part ungal in English

scarper to run off escape in E is scarpare to run in I and ? Shoe

shimmy to shake in a dress move so quick hard to see or climb a tree comes from schimmia a monkey in I

So learning  the verb variation  after unsurety the subjunctive.

Just when you thought you know the verbs they throw this in.

Why is it called a mood anyway?a variation of mode or style or way, in time?

Common in Italian, rare in English. Guesses, indefinite may could might should would perhapssubjectivity opposed to objectivity or thought as opposed to action Essere not avere.

Pensare to think credere to believe ( interesting that a belief is not in fact a fact!] sperare to hope dubitare to doubt Valerie to want desiderare to desire avere Laura to be afraid  and non sapere ie to (not) know.

What  others could there be non conoscere and non capiscere.

it is used in secondary joining expressions after an indicative or conditional main clause, joined by che, Perche and the subject of the joint clause is not the subject of the indicative clause

the present covers present and future actions  now and will

replace the present tense first person o with i for are, first 3 tenses and iamo iate and ino for the next 3. Now we iamo is the same in present and subjunctive present future forms the only one.

ere goes to a not i, ire goes to a as well with the plural 3rd person going to ano . iscere (ire) goes to isca and iscano

however if the subject in the dependent clause is the same as in the main clause Di and the infinitive is used (wow) instead of che and the subjunctive

spesso di comprare una auto.

care and gare add an h giocchi,

ciare and giare do not

covered has an irregular dobbiate plural you subjunctive instead of doviate

the plural third person has two usable forms in both indicative and subjunctive devono debbono and devano debbano  as well as this word coming from dove but full of devo roots devo can be debbo and subjunctive is deva or debba

world horrible

An idea came to me to populate my mind with all the characters I know as clones of myself. Thus I could put one to learning Italian, one mathematics [or maybe 20] one personal relationships etc so that my mind, in running said clones, could experience all that they learn as well as what I am focused on.

Stock market would be good as well.

Now how much autonomy if any can I give and how far can I divorce myself from myself?


Crying wolf [2]


angech says:

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

gravity exists for all practical purposes but it is a byproduct of the alteration of time space by mass.
A bit like that quote from the Rocky Horror Show “I’ll remove the cause but not the sensation”
So an object for instance can only move in a straight line in it’s own time space but the space time warps in the presence of other mass space times.
weird concept.
Another is that the force of gravity in a normal orbit at 350 kilometers is 9/10ths that at the surface of the earth even if you are floating weightless in a spacecraft.

“Can we use ocean temperatures in the Arctic to predict temperatures in Europe?”
led to my favorite trope, the length of time to put up blogs on observations when they do not agree with your blog purpose and the increasing number of responses when they so. Possibly a paper in this.
The temperature on skeptical blogs seems to go up when the temperature goes down and vice versa for warmist sites.
Sea ice extent , area and volume is another.
I may try a backwards prediction, 2 weekly, on arctic sea ice growth this year. Hint comment in 2 weeks to focus on that small patch off ice off Alaska [if it still exists].
Otherwise this thread will vanish…

Well this will end up with egg on the face [mine]. Foolish to try to predict Arctic ice anytime. Nonetheless I want to believe in a very good growth year even though it started out well the last 2 years and fizzled.


Deeper thicker ice this year and a cooler globe post El Nino should act as catalysts for an amazing early ice rebound. The small patch of Alaska, if it does not melt, will act as a seeding to actively speed up ice regrowth in this area. Then there is the ESS to consider!

Crying wolf

angech says:

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

“No-one is claiming that these are the types of questions that we could answer, or even why we’d want to.”

The question of the response time to a certain level of CO2 in the atmosphere is paramount or germane to a lot of the discussion on CO2 effect.
The result of not addressing it, other than “You keep on asserting things as fact that are simply and obviously incorrect. ” is to make one wonder whether the matter is too difficult.
Or taboo.
To put it simply I note from RNS that CO2 2018 is 410.79.
There is a world global temperature that fits this CO2 level, what is it?
CO2 controls temperature.
‘What temperature should it be, now, 2018?

“Even if we cannot definitively attribute a climate change link to a specific event does not mean that we can’t discuss how climate change is likely to impact such events and whether or not we’re seeing changes that are consistent with what is expected.”
Leads to a degree of confirmation bias.
If every extreme event is expected to occur with greater frequency then the mere occurrence of any said extreme event becomes automatic proof of your position, making it a definite attribution.
Seems wrong on some level even if right.
Nothing wrong with talking about the expectation
“Climate change is clearly happening and it is mainly driven by our emission of greenhouse gases (mostly CO2) into the atmosphere. Doing so causes atmospheric CO2 to increase, reducing the outgoing energy flux and causing energy to accumulate in the climate system. This will lead to warming of the surface and troposphere, increasing ocean heat content (and increasing sea surface temperatues), an increase in evaporation, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, and a change in the latitudonal temperature gradient that has the potential to influence the jet stream and, hence, weather patterns. This means that in regions that are susceptible to extreme weather events, the conditions will increasingly tend to favour these events becoming more extreme.”
But extreme events have to be rare and rare events are difficult to pin causation on and even a 5% increase is perfectly acceptable within a normal range. As well as fitting an expectation.
It is an argument that can lead to calls of crying wolf.
Wolves are out there but no-one appreciates calls that are not definitely attributable.



  • ngech says:

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thanks Izen for mentioning a sensible time scale environment.
    Andrew, I don’t understand or do not want to believe or do not get it.
    Your change in temperature for a x4 inst. forcing only goes up very slowly, years in fact to perhaps get to 2 C, then much longer to get higher [ATTP’s centuries+ to get to an equilibrium].
    I want to believe that an atmosphere with a x4 increase in CO2 [and maintained there thereafter] must have a new temperature very close to the maximum achievable and fairly instantly. like within 36 hours.
    I am prepared reluctantly to accept some lapse as the change in heating permeates to its final level. Perhaps a different simpler picture of a non rotating earth would help the imagery. Here the retained incoming heat would rapidly build up and then spread to the dark side over time, hours days until the outgoing again balances the incoming. Obviously some heat would be transferred/ building in the oceans. But this again could balance fairly soon. The oceans being hotter on the surface keep the air warmer and decrease rapidly the amount of heat needed to be put in to achieve that balance as well.
    My point, dense though it is, is that a volume of gas of known composition, on a known backdrop of water/land on one side, space on the other, heated by a known income source [np clouds] has a known expected scientific temperature.
    Earth at 500 ppm CO2 , Earth at 2000 ppm, each has a set expected temp [specifiable in a range if not exact]
    I realise that ocean temperatures can take months to vary but atmospheres are much thinner and reactive. 0 at night to 30C in the day at Alice Springs. Why should not the temperature reaction of a known composition adjust to that expected temperature, or close to. more quickly?

  • angech says:

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Steven, “attack the pattern argument”
    I read AD An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability
    “It is also worth stepping back and asking what could cause our calculation to be seriously in error.
    It seems unlikely that forcing from doubled CO2 is wrong given our good understanding of the physics of CO2 forcing (e.g.,Feldman et al., 2015).

    Estimates of ? iv,obs and ?iv,obs are derived from observations we view to be reliable,
    so our judgment is that they are also unlikely to be significantly wrong.

    The ?TS/?TA factor comes from climate model simulations, but models have long been able to accurately reproduce the observed pattern of surface warming (e.g., Stouffer & Manabe, 2017), and we have simple physical arguments explaining how the atmospheric and surface temperature should be connected (Xu & Emanuel, 1989).
    Finally, we can compare the models to data (Compo et al., 2011; Poli et al., 2016) to validate their simulation of this ratio.

    Thus, the transfer function seems the most probable place for a significant error to occur. We also argue that while errors may exist in a model (i.e., in the cloud feedback), this will affect both the numerator and denominator and such errors will tend to cancel out.
    While one must be careful about conclusions based on a single model, this nevertheless provides some support for the hypothesis that errors in ? 4xCO2
    will cancel errors in ? iv when the ratio is taken.

    As a preliminary test of this, we have analyzed three different versions of the MPI-ESM 1.2 model that have had their cloud feedbacks modified to produce different ECS (Thorsten Mauritsen and Diego Jimenez, personal communication, 2018). The three versions are the standard model (ECS calculated from an abrupt 4xCO2 run using the Gregory method = 3.0 K), an iris version (described in Mauritsen & Stevens, 2015; ECS = 2.6 K), and a high ECS version, in which the convective parameterization has been tweaked to generate a large, positive cloud feedback (ECS = 5.2 K). ”

    I have cut, pasted and tweaked this somewhat, apologies for those bits left out. It contains numerous items relevant to past discussions on this and other blogs supportive of some of my past statements.
    I have trouble understanding “if the argument turns on which version of ice is used,”
    So I am probably cross discussing..
    Here, with Andy, He has outlined his procedures well. He believes ” models have long been able to accurately reproduce the observed pattern of surface warming ”
    I would argue that reproduction is different to predication, I would hope the models do accurately reproduce. any argument that observations could be put aside when they disagree with the reality of models is fraught. though not untenable.

  • angech says:

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    I have trouble understanding “if the argument turns on which version of ice is used,”
    Time scales as we both know are very relevant to the accuracy of prediction and expectation. When I argue from a very few years of ice increase from one data set you are more than entitled to laugh at me, and others. When the ice sets [satellites] are of short duration 40 years themselves then the laughter should be stifled though the message is still with the long term trend.
    I have no beef with people having beliefs or predictions. Only sticking to legitimate scientific methods. PIOMAS is currently creating some issues for people wanting warming. They believe it is not accurate now though they were happy to accept it while it was falling precipitously. Skeptics did not believe it when it was falling. Both cut from the same cloth.


ecs again

dikranmarsupial says:
August 17, 2018 at 6:56 am

angech wrote “ECS can only ever come out as it is programmed in. ”

This is just grade A bullshit. If I were a Magrathean and built a replica Earth (as indeed they did), it would have the same ECS as the real Earth because it is an emergent property of the physics governing climate (and the position of the planet in the solar system and the distribution of land masses etc.), not because the Magratheans “programmed it in”. It doesn’t make any difference whether you simulate that physics on a computer (supposing you could do so with infinite spatial and temporal resolution) or whether you simulated them using a replica Earth.

It is the constant stream of this kind of bullshit (and angech is not the only one) that means I am giving up on commenting on blogs, probably permanently. As a scientist, I feel a pressure to respond to this sort of incorrect assertion about science, but at the same time I know it is a complete waste of my time because angech (an others like him) will continue to spread the same bullshit elsewhere or here in a later thread, or move on to some other topic of bullshit. Thus I can’t enjoy just having a reasonable discussion here on a topic I find interesting without being bothered by bullshitters every time (and I mean every time). It appears I should probably stop reading blogs as well. Well done angech.
dikranmarsupial says:
August 17, 2018 at 7:00 am

I should add, it is very easy to show that ECS is not programmed in to climate models. If this were possible, then climate skeptics would just take the code for an existing GCM and twiddle with the parameters etc. until they got a GCM that explains past climate with a low ECS. The trouble is that can’t be done without using parameter values that are either inconsistent with physics or with experiment. Of course this is something that has been pointed out repeatedly over the years. Still waiting.
angech says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
August 17, 2018 at 10:03 am

angech wrote “ECS can only ever come out as it is programmed in. ”This is just grade A bullshit.”
One could look at 1000 papers like this. They show that ECS outcome, high or low, is very dependent on what initial parameters are put in.
Re examining the Relationship between Climate Sensitivity and the Southern
Hemisphere Radiation Budget in CMIP Models JOHN T. FASULLO
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 8 January 2015
models with the highest values of ECS strongly reduce low-level marine clouds in most regions of the subtropics as CO2 increases, whereas models with the lowest values of ECS actually increase low-level marine clouds in some subtropical regions
The trade-off between a better representation of present-day Southern Ocean or subtropical shortwave CRE in these subsets of models points to choices made in the model development process, rather than robust physical processes. [1]
Consequently, we find no clear physical reason to expect a linkage between subtropical cloud biases and the correlations between ECS and present-day biases over the Southern Ocean.
Instead, the linkage between subtropical and mid-latitude cloud properties is likely an artifact of choices made in model parameterization and tuning [2]
Identifying large model biases in fields physically linked to climate feedbacks remains a promising path for improving models and for potentially narrowing their spread in ECS.[3]
when the correlation between ECS and a present-day climate property arises from a systematic model bias rather than from a real physical process, its utility becomes
questionable [4]
angech says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
August 17, 2018 at 10:22 am

…and Then There’s Physics says:
angech, You’re just doubling down now. ECS is an emergent property of models.
From RealClimate “Each of these numbers is an ’emergent’ property of the climate system – i.e. something that is affected by many different processes and interactions, and isn’t simply derived just based on knowledge of a small-scale process”

“The wording is one issue that I am immediately defeated on. Of course anything that comes out of running a computer program can be said to emerge from it. ” I had this discussion at Lucia’s two years ago with no success. The word emergent is used by many including those promoting the ECS from models view as being an unknown that emerges from the model results. That is it could not be predicted beforehand and yet would fall somewhere in the predicted range.”

I feel helpless at this, caught in a paradox. Either we can discuss ideas and be allowed to be wrong but have it explained [I don’t mind being castigated for not understanding] or we can choose to dismiss contradictory views out of hand. Science depends on being explainable. To just say something is emergent means we cannot explain it. In which case what is the point of developing a computer model in the first place if the answer was unprovable?

The wording is one issue that I am immediately defeated on.

Sorry about the circles.
Very well put.
“two people can have viewpoints that are mutually exclusive, where both are right”
“In this case, we could say that ECS is the function specific inputs chosen by coders, and as such, those coders determine the final value by making choices among specific inputs. Or, we could say that the coders are putting in values that represent our best understanding of physics, and that ECS emerges as an output. Essentially, those views are incompatible, and yet I think both are true.”
You can say both those things.
Some people do.
“You can get anything you like out of a model. If you set it up with scientifically based suppositions about the physics of clouds, based on the existing evidence, and reflective of a scientifically quantified range of uncertainty, they will produce an ECS output range, which likewise reflects a quantified range of uncertainty. This will at some point in the future be modified with scientific improvements.”
is fine.
Note ECS may well be 3 or 4 and better provable and models in the future will, in their arcane way, be the best way of determining it. They must be in the ball park probably inside the bases.
Just they are striking out on the nature pitches.
“You can get anything you like out of a model depending on what you put into it” would be the best interpretation of what I was saying, which I think should be evident yet English is such difficult beast.
“You can only get out of a model what you put into it” is what people here are hearing me say.
Both statements are the same yet mutually contradictory.
Perhaps Willard could explain how this is allowed to happen.
Or ATTP could do a post.

IPCC 2007

This is the money quote.
IPCC 2007
“These studies highlight some common biases in the simulation of clouds by current models (e.g., Zhang et al., 2005). This includes the over-prediction of optically thick clouds and the under-prediction of optically thin low and middle-top clouds. However, uncertainties remain in the observational determination of the relative amounts of the different cloud types (Chang and Li, 2005). For mid-latitudes, these biases have been interpreted as the consequence of the coarse resolution of climate GCMs and their resulting inability to simulate the right strength of ageostrophic circulations (Bauer and Del Genio, 2006) and the right amount of sub-grid scale variability (Gordon et al., 2005). Although the errors in the simulation of the different cloud types may eventually compensate and lead to a prediction of the mean CRF in agreement with observations (see Section 8.3), they cast doubts on the reliability of the model cloud feedbacks. For instance, given the nonlinear dependence of cloud albedo on cloud optical depth, the overestimate of the cloud optical thickness implies that a change in cloud optical depth, even of the right sign and magnitude, would produce a too small radiative signature. Similarly, the under-prediction of low- and mid-level clouds presumably affects the magnitude of the radiative response to climate warming in the widespread regions of subsidence. Modelling assumptions controlling the cloud water phase (liquid, ice or mixed) are known to be critical for the prediction of climate sensitivity.”
There is more. I truncate only to get a readable comment in. As I recall, possibly from Soden somewhere different models arbitrarily choose a range for absorbtion in thes clouds which can be double another model. I hope most people would agree a doubling or halving gives critically different results and quite a different but predictable emergent ECS.
This is where the input that later forms the ECS occurs.
Worse it implies that 2 wrong assumptions may be being made that somehow compensate each other in that they then produce the right ECS.

an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

The first issue with uncertainty and risk is with adequate, meaningful data.

We do not have this at this stage. We need data covering at least 60 years * with reliable data collections of temperature air mass and composition. Ocean salinity, density, volume and understanding of both pressure and current the surface and at all depths.Variations in atmospheric density, composition, fires, volcanoes, winds. Also volcanic effects, Tsunami effects, Anthropogenic CO2 and emission effects. Last the dynamics of planetary movement and of solar heat, magnetism and plasma effects.

We have some. We have an idea of what others we need to have. We have a starting point but we do not have an understanding of what the natural variations can be* and how often they can occur hence our risk assessment has a high inbuilt level of uncertainty.

People like looking for their lost keys under the streetlight because at least there they can see. Similarly Climate egnostics like to look at recent data and experience because that is what they know and are comfortable with. Secondly they like familiarity, normal is what one was born in and grew up with. But climate is much more unpredictable than what we have experienced in the last 20 to 70 years. My apologies to those too young, not enough data base and those too old, set in their ways.

Climate is the Grapes of Wrath years in America. In Australia we had our settlers in South Australia who grew wheat and sheep for 40 years successfully only for the true drought and heat conditions of that area of the world return to wipe them out. History is redolent with famines and feasts [the bible] The deserts of the ancient Egyptian food bowls. Little Ice Ages Roman warm periods..

The best and most simple, elegant example of complete misunderstanding of the risks has happened before our eyes with hardly a whimper from anyone involved. The Global Sea Ice extent. Here we have an example of dropping levels from the 1970’s satellite levels With a recovery due to the Antarctic ice going up to and over x2 SD for several years. In fact roughly 4 years ago we had for one month the highest sea ice extent on record for 1 month. Just 4 years ago.

Then we had a fall in both Arctic and Antarctic extent together in the last 3 years giving a 5-7 SD drop to the lowest figures recorded, now thankfully improving. I cannot emphasize this enough. A 7 SD difference is immense, mind boggling and in terms of risk either immensely significant or significant of something immensely wrong with our understanding of the real standard deviations normally available.The latter is the reality. We are able to have climate and weather fluctuations in terms of years that are a lot higher than what we currently cater for. This means that people who want to see risk can find it anywhere if they are prepared to lie to themselves. Highest temp in all of recording time [3 years] for the hill on the back of our block in Tennessee for one hour in July 13th? Shame about the bushfire. But also for people who desperately wish to see green shoots of recovery anywhere and choose the opposite cooling examples.

Things are not made any better by specious, sometimes  mendacious and precious commentary on the different measuring systems available when they disagree with one’s own precious views.Or by using anomaly measurements and making backwards adjustments to real temperature measurements.

Disclaimer, CO2 is real. CO2 by itself can make temperatures go up and it is a small but important balanced component of our atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere.Some people like to argue an it is just atmosphere composition and gravity. Cart before the horse, no, just it is both cart and horse. If the CO2 goes up at a certain gravity and pressure then of course the temperature goes up as well. Both sides would do well to take a chill pill.

But CO2 is only one component of the complicated CO2 pathway for the atmosphere and due to the high carbonic content of the sea and the immense heat capacity of the oceans, which both give and take heat, Vegetation growth on land and sea, responses to CO2 addition are unclear and unknown

While chaos is an unknown, organisation is a given. The immense ocean buffering, the nature of our rocks and thin water envelope. The photosynthesis at this distance from the sun means that for human lifetime experiences, individually and collectively there is minimal risk of anything other than the gradual massive slow changes the earth has had for 2 of its 4 billion plus years.  This does not mean that on a decadal or centennial scale we could have changes that seem extreme to us, particularly when we panic.