asoliduniverse

Zeke Hausfather says: May 12, 2014 at 3:00 pm The difference is straighforward enough. Even if you use monthly rather than annual averages of absolute temperatures, you will still run into issues related to underlying climatologies when you are comparing, say, 650 raw stations to 1218 adjusted stations. You can get around this issue either by using anomalies OR by comparing the 650 raw stations to the adjusted values of those same 650 stations. The reason why the 1218 to 650 comparison leads you astray is that NCDC’s infilling approach doesn’t just assign the 1218 stations a distance-weighted average of the reporting 650 stations; rather, it adds the distance-weighted average anomaly to the monthly climate normals for the missing stations. This means that when you compare the raw and adjusted stations, differences in elevation and other climatological factors between the 1218 stations and the 650 stations will swamp any effects of actual adjustments (e.g. those for station moves, instrument changes, etc.). It also gives you an inconsistant record for raw stations, as the changing composition of the station network will introduce large biases into your estimate of absolute raw station records over time. Using anomalies avoids this problem, of course. — Draft

Global Climate

Where to start?

 

[Comments Climate and Weather are quite often used interchangeably and often mean the same thing but can be quite different***]

AGW    Anthropogenic Global Warming    CC Climate Change

These are interchangeable terms  in the modern world.

The term Climate change being that used in the acronym IPCC, The International Panel on Climate Change.

Initially this was a United Nations initiative  designed to investigate, monitor and report on Climate Change in the world.The aim was to help nations adapt to changes in the climate that affect them directly and indirectly, both to mitigate harmful effects and to promote strategies that might benefit nations.

Implicit in this initiative was the idea that Human’s might be able to adapt to changes  better or even initiate changes that could effect the climate  beneficially. As a corollary to this it meant that the idea that Human’s could also change the climate directly and indirectly was understood.

The extent to which this may be true has coloured Climate Change ever since with proponents on either side. At one end of the spectrum are those who believe that every thing that changes in Climate is directly or Indirectly related to Man’s  activities. At the other end are those who feel that Human’s are too insignificant to effect the weather at all.

Furthermore, by having an International Panel set up to Investigate Climate Change, the
subject is forever clouded by what can only be called affirmation or selection bias. After all, if one had a panel on pink elephants  or nothing , someone on the panel would have to think that pink elephants or nothing exists.

This is not to say that Climate Change does not exist, just that there is a large bias to proving that it does so in a meaningful way, a self fulfilling prophecy to justify the existence and use of the body promoting it.

Consequently when investigating the Climate there is a huge imperative to make sure that all studies and reports should be rigorous in their  scientific approach. All data used in such reports must be readily available to anyone wishing to review the reports and  archived for later use.

Where studies use arcane methods to arrive at conclusions or data cannot be verified then  such data should not and must not be used. With great power comes great responsibility  and hearsay is no substitute for science.

There should also be an avoidance of pushing agenda’s unrelated to Climate Change  in the name of Climate Change.

 

Having got those comments out of the way Climate Change and its issues can be approached on a number of fronts.

Does it matter?

The answer is no, to most of the people in the world. Most people have other priorities. Love, life, food exercise Going out, sport and politics just to name a few. Even those who read this have to be educated, speak, read and understand English  and live somewhere close to where I live to be able to find it.

The answer is also no on any sensible time scale. No matter how much temperature rise or sea change level is mooted anyone alive at the moment able to read this will be dead well before any meaningful change occurs.

Which leads to a fun aside. People often say if we do not act now it will affect the future generations, our children and grandchildren. How is it then that my Granddad did not act to prevent my current situation 50 years ago.

The answer is yes to those people who see themselves as intelligent, interested in the human race and its survival and who understand the intricacies of climate change and its consequences.

[* personally these people are big headed saints or have problems or both]

Those people again however can be diametrically opposed in there understanding of Climate Change and its consequences.

The earth we live on has three usual outer layers.
The atmosphere in gas phase, the oceans etc in liquid phase and the crust in solid mineral phase or as ice and snow.
It has an inbuilt source of heat which is important.
The vast majority of the heat present at the surface comes externally from the sun.

The minerals making up the earth are the original source of the atmosphere and the oceans.*
* some people claim meteorites are an additional source of water.
The earth is basically a hot meteorite slightly cooling down.
If we could imagine it a lot further away from the sun in orbit we would find it to have very little atmosphere as most of the oxygen and nitrogen would be frozen as a layer on the surface with the oceans as solid ice.*
* different scenarios exist.

The first and most important comment is that the earth, and meteorites have a pH depending on their mineral composition which for the earth is around pH 8.1.
When the temperature increases ( planet closer to the sun in our case) water becomes liquid on top of the solid mineral surface and engages in chemical reactions which lead to it equilibrating with the pH of the surface of the earth in general.*
*pH varies according to the minerals and compounds both in the water and in contact with the water..

The second comment is that when water is present a third gaseous layer develops from the large amount of gases given off by the warming water.
This is far greater than any trace gas atmosphere on a water less solid planetoid such as on the surface of the moon.
The gases in the atmosphere are present as per Boyle’s law each by how much is dissolved in the water at that temperature and pressure from the solids presented by the earth..
Oxygen has a special place as it would normally be in mineral or part of water only on a cold lifeless planet.

The formulae for determining the amount of CO2 in the air are quite clear.
CO2 in the air is present in minuscule amounts compared to CO2/H2CO3 various forms and CaCO3 in water.
In turn the earth has massive amounts of CaCO3 and other Carbonates not only in its surface layer but also deeper.

The earth pH 8.1 is in equilibrium with the water pH 8.1 overall.*
*obviously pH is constantly varying depending on temperature and depth. Being in equilibrium overall does not mean it is the same everywhere at the same time.

The CO2 in the atmosphere has been there for over the last two billion years. It comes from the water dissolving carbonates when it is warm enough to do so.
The water then keeps an average 400 ppm in the atmosphere
At a yearly average surface temperature of 14.9 C at 1 atmosphere of pressure.

dikranmarsupial says:
February 4, 2023 at 4:53 pm
” Monckton has an algorithm for cherry picking the start point, but it is still cherry picking. His algorithm is selecting the start point that maximises the strength of his argument (at least for a lay audience that doesn’t understand the pitfalls).”
–
DM this is not correct.
ATTP and Willis have used algorithms for most but one of their pauses but Monckton never has.
–
The algorithms incorporating trends are specific to the charts and data used.
One can cherry pick the length of which one of the steps one wants to use,
but, importantly one cannot rig a flat trend.
–
Because Monckton uses a pause, a new pause, this can only go to the end point of the current date and changes from the new date.
Thus he has never selected start point that maximizes the strength of his argument.
The fact that the pause can lengthen or shorten means he has never cherry picked a starting point.
–
Willis, unlike ATTP shows part of a truly long pause from 1997 to 2012.
ATTP breaks it down to two different pauses by incorporating different start and end dates.
Interesting.

https://scifi.stackexchange.com › questions › 176944 › short-story-where-everyone-must-be-equal
Short story where everyone must be equal – Science Fiction & Fantasy …
That would be ” Harrison Bergeron ” by Kurt Vonnegut. THE YEAR WAS 2081, and everybody was finally equal. They weren’t only equal before God and the law. They were equal every which way. Nobody was smarter than anybody else. Nobody was better looking than anybody else. Nobody was stronger or quicker than anybody else.

HARRISON BERGERON by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
THE YEAR WAS 2081, and everybody was finally equal. They weren’t only equal
before God and the law. They were equal every which way. Nobody was smarter
than anybody else. Nobody was better looking than anybody else. Nobody was
stronger or quicker than anybody else. All this equality was due to the
211th, 212th, and 213 th Amendments to the Constitution, and to the unceasing
vigilance of agents of the United States Handicapper General.
Some things about living still weren’t quite right, though. April for
instance, still drove people crazy by not being springtime. And it was in
that clammy month that the H-G men took George and Hazel Bergeron’s fourteen-
year-old son, Harrison, away.
It was tragic, all right, but George and Hazel couldn’t think about it very
hard. Hazel had a perfectly average intelligence, which meant she couldn’t
think about anything except in short bursts. And George, while his
intelligence was way above normal, had a little mental handicap radio in his
ear. He was required by law to wear it at all times. It was tuned to a
government transmitter. Every twenty seconds or so, the transmitter would
send out some sharp noise to keep people like George from taking unfair
advantage of their brains.
George and Hazel were watching television. There were tears on Hazel’s
cheeks, but she’d forgotten for the moment what they were about.
On the television screen were ballerinas.
A buzzer sounded in George’s head. His thoughts fled in panic, like bandits
from a burglar alarm.
“That was a real pretty dance, that dance they just did,” said Hazel.
“Huh” said George.”That dance-it was nice,” said Hazel.
“Yup,” said George. He tried to think a little about the ballerinas. They
weren’t really very good-no better than anybody else would have been, anyway.
They were burdened with sashweights and bags of birdshot, and their faces
were masked, so that no one, seeing a free and graceful gesture or a pretty
face, would feel like something the cat drug in. George was toying with the
vague notion that maybe dancers shouldn’t be handicapped. But he didn’t get
very far with it before another noise in his ear radio scattered his
thoughts.
George winced. So did two out of the eight ballerinas.
Hazel saw him wince. Having no mental handicap herself, she had to ask George
what the latest sound had been.
“Sounded like somebody hitting a milk bottle with a ball peen hammer,” said
George.
“I’d think it would be real interesting, hearing all the different sounds,”
said Hazel a little envious. “All the things they think up.”
“Um,” said George.
“Only, if I was Handicapper General, you know what I would do?” said Hazel.
Hazel, as a matter of fact, bore a strong resemblance to the Handicapper
General, a woman named Diana Moon Glampers. “If I was Diana Moon Glampers,”
said Hazel, “I’d have chimes on Sunday-just chimes. Kind of in honor of
religion.”
“I could think, if it was just chimes,” said George.
“Well-maybe make ’em real loud,” said Hazel. “I think I’d make a good
Handicapper General.” “Good as anybody else,” said George.
“Who knows better then I do what normal is?” said Hazel.
“Right,” said George. He began to think glimmeringly about his abnormal son
who was now in jail, about Harrison, but a twenty-one-gun salute in his head
stopped that.
“Boy!” said Hazel, “that was a doozy, wasn’t it?”
It was such a doozy that George was white and trembling, and tears stood on
the rims of his red eyes. Two of of the eight ballerinas had collapsed to the
studio floor, were holding their temples.
“All of a sudden you look so tired,” said Hazel. “Why don’t you stretch out
on the sofa, so’s you can rest your handicap bag on the pillows, honeybunch.”
She was referring to the forty-seven pounds of birdshot in a canvas bag,
which was padlocked around George’s neck. “Go on and rest the bag for a
little while,” she said. “I don’t care if you’re not equal to me for a
while.”
George weighed the bag with his hands. “I don’t mind it,” he said. “I don’t
notice it any more. It’s just a part of me.”
“You been so tired lately-kind of wore out,” said Hazel. “If there was just
some way we could make a little hole in the bottom of the bag, and just take
out a few of them lead balls. Just a few.”
“Two years in prison and two thousand dollars fine for every ball I took
out,” said George. “I don’t call that a bargain.”
“If you could just take a few out when you came home from work,” said Hazel.
“I mean-you don’t compete with anybody around here. You just set around.”
“If I tried to get away with it,” said George, “then other people’d get away
with it-and pretty soon we’d be right back to the dark ages again, with
everybody competing against everybody else. You wouldn’t like that, would
you?”
“I’d hate it,” said Hazel.
“There you are,” said George. The minute people start cheating on laws, what
do you think happens to society?”
If Hazel hadn’t been able to come up with an answer to this question, George
couldn’t have supplied one. A siren was going off in his head.
“Reckon it’d fall all apart,” said Hazel.
“What would?” said George blankly.
“Society,” said Hazel uncertainly. “Wasn’t that what you just said?
“Who knows?” said George.
The television program was suddenly interrupted for a news bulletin. It
wasn’t clear at first as to what the bulletin was about, since the announcer,
like all announcers, had a serious speech impediment. For about half a
minute, and in a state of high excitement, the announcer tried to say,
“Ladies and Gentlemen.”
He finally gave up, handed the bulletin to a ballerina to read.
“That’s all right-” Hazel said of the announcer, “he tried. That’s the big
thing. He tried to do the best he could with what God gave him. He should get
a nice raise for trying so hard.”
“Ladies and Gentlemen,” said the ballerina, reading the bulletin. She must
have been extraordinarily beautiful, because the mask she wore was hideous.
And it was easy to see that she was the strongest and most graceful of all
the dancers, for her handicap bags were as big as those worn by two-hundred
pound men.
And she had to apologize at once for her voice, which was a very unfair voice
for a woman to use. Her voice was a warm, luminous, timeless melody. “Excuse
me-” she said, and she began again, making her voice absolutely
uncompetitive.
“Harrison Bergeron, age fourteen,” she said in a grackle squawk, “has just
escaped from jail, where he was held on suspicion of plotting to overthrow
the government. He is a genius and an athlete, is under-handicapped, and
should be regarded as extremely dangerous.”
A police photograph of Harrison Bergeron was flashed on the screen-upside
down, then sideways, upside down again, then right side up. The picture
showed the full length of Harrison against a background calibrated in feet
and inches. He was exactly seven feet tall.
The rest of Harrison’s appearance was Halloween and hardware. Nobody had ever
born heavier handicaps. He had outgrown hindrances faster than the H-G men
could think them up. Instead of a little ear radio for a mental handicap, he
wore a tremendous pair of earphones, and spectacles with thick wavy lenses.
The spectacles were intended to make him not only half blind, but to give him
whanging headaches besides.
Scrap metal was hung all over him. Ordinarily, there was a certain symmetry,
a military neatness to the handicaps issued to strong people, but Harrison
looked like a walking junkyard. In the race of life, Harrison carried three
hundred pounds.
And to offset his good looks, the H-G men required that he wear at all times
a red rubber ball for a nose, keep his eyebrows shaved off, and cover his
even white teeth with black caps at snaggle-tooth random.
“If you see this boy,” said the ballerina, “do not – I repeat, do not – try
to reason with him.”
There was the shriek of a door being torn from its hinges.
Screams and barking cries of consternation came from the television set. The
photograph of Harrison Bergeron on the screen jumped again and again, as
though dancing to the tune of an earthquake.
George Bergeron correctly identified the earthquake, and well he might have –
for many was the time his own home had danced to the same crashing tune. “My
God-” said George, “that must be Harrison!”
The realization was blasted from his mind instantly by the sound of an
automobile collision in his head.
When George could open his eyes again, the photograph of Harrison was gone. A
living, breathing Harrison filled the screen.
Clanking, clownish, and huge, Harrison stood – in the center of the studio.
The knob of the uprooted studio door was still in his hand. Ballerinas,
technicians, musicians, and announcers cowered on their knees before him,
expecting to die.
“I am the Emperor!” cried Harrison. “Do you hear? I am the Emperor! Everybody
must do what I say at once!” He stamped his foot and the studio shook.
“Even as I stand here” he bellowed, “crippled, hobbled, sickened – I am a
greater ruler than any man who ever lived! Now watch me become what I can
become!”
Harrison tore the straps of his handicap harness like wet tissue paper, tore
straps guaranteed to support five thousand pounds.
Harrison’s scrap-iron handicaps crashed to the floor.
Harrison thrust his thumbs under the bar of the padlock that secured his head
harness. The bar snapped like celery. Harrison smashed his headphones and
spectacles against the wall.
He flung away his rubber-ball nose, revealed a man that would have awed Thor,
the god of thunder.
“I shall now select my Empress!” he said, looking down on the cowering
people. “Let
the first woman who dares rise to her feet claim her mate and her throne!”
A moment passed, and then a ballerina arose, swaying like a willow.
Harrison plucked the mental handicap from her ear, snapped off her physical
handicaps with marvelous delicacy. Last of all he removed her mask.
She was blindingly beautiful.
“Now-” said Harrison, taking her hand, “shall we show the people the meaning
of the word dance? Music!” he commanded.
The musicians scrambled back into their chairs, and Harrison stripped them of
their handicaps, too. “Play your best,” he told them, “and I’ll make you
barons and dukes and earls.”
The music began. It was normal at first-cheap, silly, false. But Harrison
snatched two musicians from their chairs, waved them like batons as he sang
the music as he wanted it played. He slammed them back into their chairs.
The music began again and was much improved.
Harrison and his Empress merely listened to the music for a while-listened
gravely, as though synchronizing their heartbeats with it.
They shifted their weights to their toes.
Harrison placed his big hands on the girls tiny waist, letting her sense the
weightlessness that would soon be hers.
And then, in an explosion of joy and grace, into the air they sprang!
Not only were the laws of the land abandoned, but the law of gravity and the
laws of motion as well.
They reeled, whirled, swiveled, flounced, capered, gamboled, and spun.
They leaped like deer on the moon.
The studio ceiling was thirty feet high, but each leap brought the dancers
nearer to it.
It became their obvious intention to kiss the ceiling. They kissed it.
And then, neutraling gravity with love and pure will, they remained suspended
in air inches below the ceiling, and they kissed each other for a long, long
time.
It was then that Diana Moon Glampers, the Handicapper General, came into the
studio with a double-barreled ten-gauge shotgun. She fired twice, and the
Emperor and the Empress were dead before they hit the floor.
Diana Moon Glampers loaded the gun again. She aimed it at the musicians and
told them they had ten seconds to get their handicaps back on.
It was then that the Bergerons’ television tube burned out.
Hazel turned to comment about the blackout to George. But George had gone out
into the kitchen for a can of beer.
George came back in with the beer, paused while a handicap signal shook him
up. And then he sat down again. “You been crying” he said to Hazel.
“Yup,” she said. “What about?” he said.
“I forget,” she said. “Something real sad on television.”
“What was it?” he said.
“It’s all kind of mixed up in my mind,” said Hazel.
“Forget sad things,” said George.
“I always do,” said Hazel.
“That’s my girl,” said George. He winced. There was the sound of a rivetting
gun in his head.
“Gee – I could tell that one was a doozy,” said Hazel.
“You can say that again,” said George.
“Gee-” said Hazel, “I could tell that one was a doozy.”
“Harrison Bergeron” is copyrighted by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr., 1961.

The average global net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is defined as the difference between the energy absorbed and emitted by the planet.
In an equilibrium climate state, the global net radiation at the TOA is zero.
In the presence of an increasing climate forcing, an imbalance between the energy absorbed and emitted occurs,
and in response the climate system must react to restore the balance (e.g., by changing temperature).
The rate at which the earth reacts is modulated by its capacity to store energy.
Given that oceans are 10 times more efficient at storing heat than other components of the climate system (e.g., land, ice, atmosphere; Levitus et al. 2001),
the global net radiation at the TOA should be in phase with and of similar magnitude as the global ocean heat storage.

At the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the Earth’s energy budget involves a balance between how
much solar energy Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation is emitted to space.
Since only radiative energy is involved, this is also referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). NG Loeb, W Su et al 2016

A natural balance exists in the Earth system between incoming solar radiation and outgoing radiation that is emitted back to space as either light (direct reflection of sunlight)
or heat (infrared emission from surfaces).
This balance, referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB), determines the climate of the Earth and makes our planet hospitable for life.
Chemical Sciences Laboratory NOAA

Earth’s Energy Budget
The TOA ERB describes the balance between how much solar energy the Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation it emits.
N.G. Loeb, … W.F. Miller, in Comprehensive Remote Sensing, 2018
The average global net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is defined as the difference between the energy absorbed and emitted by the planet.
In an equilibrium climate state, the global net radiation at the TOA is zero.
In the presence of an increasing climate forcing, an imbalance between the energy absorbed and emitted occurs,
and in response the climate system must react to restore the balance (e.g., by changing temperature).
The rate at which the earth reacts is modulated by its capacity to store energy.
Given that oceans are 10 times more efficient at storing heat than other components of the climate system (e.g., land, ice, atmosphere; Levitus et al. 2001),
the global net radiation at the TOA should be in phase with and of similar magnitude as the global ocean heat storage.

At the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the Earth’s energy budget involves a balance between how
much solar energy Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation is emitted to space.
Since only radiative energy is involved, this is also referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). NG Loeb, W Su et al 2016

A natural balance exists in the Earth system between incoming solar radiation and outgoing radiation that is emitted back to space as either light (direct reflection of sunlight)
or heat (infrared emission from surfaces).
This balance, referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB), determines the climate of the Earth and makes our planet hospitable for life.
Chemical Sciences Laboratory NOAA

Earth’s Energy Budget
The TOA ERB describes the balance between how much solar energy the Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation it emits.
N.G. Loeb, … W.F. Miller, in Comprehensive Remote Sensing, 2018

angech says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
July 20, 2022 at 6:35 am

izen says: July 18, 2022 at 2:16 pm
“One is the comment that we can see galaxies 13.8 billion years ago.
No one explains how the further out we look we find galaxies and stars That we compare to our own even though they have not existed as such for 13.8 billion years.”
The universe is much larger than 13.8 billion years across due to space expansion, the most recent estimate I have seen is around 95 billion light years.”
–
Size of the visible universe is partly dependent on how good our “optics” are.
If something is out there 14.2 billion light years away we probably would not see [detect ]it with our current science.
As DM said “How bright would a mega star have to be”.
Even other universes from other big bangs [if we consider our “universe” to have a single origin would be hard pressed to trouble the cosmic microwave background radiation let alone be seen.
–
The size of the visible universe is thus only double the 13.8 billion years, 27.6 billion years.
Since it has been expanding at less than the speed of light [caveat] the actual universe would be only perhaps 54 billion years old at the moment.
–
“The universe is around 95 billion light years across.” is an estimate based on maths and physics theories and until everyone agrees on those we might be better sticking to the speed of light time and distance observations.
Thank you for putting it and the concept up.
The big bang itself had so much matter and energy that our current concepts of time and the speed of light back then go out the window.
–
angech says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
July 20, 2022 at 6:56 am

…and Then There’s Physics says: July 18, 2022 at 7:29 am

“As I understand it, the galaxies in the galaxy cluster that was imaged by JWST were about 4.6 billion years old”.
–
The articles being written by journalists seem to be conflating such galaxies with the concept of being able to look back a lot further in time.
–
The original hot explosion or event being that long ago that the first clumps of plasma for want of a better word were supposed to form mega stars of very short life span which threw out clumps of matter [including some heavier elements than H, He] to form the original galaxies which were also very large [hence visible faintly] and then possibly another two iterations to get to our young star and young galaxy.
The materials greater than iron on the periodic table, gold being the best example, are thought to have come from arcane processes in past supernovae.
–
It is hard to imagine our sun being the remnant of a 13.8 billion year chunk of hop plasma cooling down over that length of time.
Further such explosions cause escape speed velocities which mean that the galaxies should never have come back together.
–
An alternative view is that space was filled with large amounts of cooled down matter in waves of explosions that crossed each other causing focal points of reaccumulation resulting in newer smaller galaxies.
This would explain suns forming from gigantic masses of cold hydrogen, etc hitting or passing through each other leaving focal eddies of matter which could then coalesce to form suns and planets.
–
and how elliptical orbits of planets and stars can come into being.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
July 20, 2022 at 6:35 am

izen says: July 18, 2022 at 2:16 pm
“One is the comment that we can see galaxies 13.8 billion years ago.
No one explains how the further out we look we find galaxies and stars That we compare to our own even though they have not existed as such for 13.8 billion years.”
The universe is much larger than 13.8 billion years across due to space expansion, the most recent estimate I have seen is around 95 billion light years.”
–
Size of the visible universe is partly dependent on how good our “optics” are.
If something is out there 14.2 billion light years away we probably would not see [detect ]it with our current science.
As DM said “How bright would a mega star have to be”.
Even other universes from other big bangs [if we consider our “universe” to have a single origin would be hard pressed to trouble the cosmic microwave background radiation let alone be seen.
–
The size of the visible universe is thus only double the 13.8 billion years, 27.6 billion years.
Since it has been expanding at less than the speed of light [caveat] the actual universe would be only perhaps 54 billion years old at the moment.
–
“The universe is around 95 billion light years across.” is an estimate based on maths and physics theories and until everyone agrees on those we might be better sticking to the speed of light time and distance observations.
Thank you for putting it and the concept up.
The big bang itself had so much matter and energy that our current concepts of time and the speed of light back then go out the window.
–
angech says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
July 20, 2022 at 6:56 am

…and Then There’s Physics says: July 18, 2022 at 7:29 am

“As I understand it, the galaxies in the galaxy cluster that was imaged by JWST were about 4.6 billion years old”.
–
The articles being written by journalists seem to be conflating such galaxies with the concept of being able to look back a lot further in time.
–
The original hot explosion or event being that long ago that the first clumps of plasma for want of a better word were supposed to form mega stars of very short life span which threw out clumps of matter [including some heavier elements than H, He] to form the original galaxies which were also very large [hence visible faintly] and then possibly another two iterations to get to our young star and young galaxy.
The materials greater than iron on the periodic table, gold being the best example, are thought to have come from arcane processes in past supernovae.
–
It is hard to imagine our sun being the remnant of a 13.8 billion year chunk of hop plasma cooling down over that length of time.
Further such explosions cause escape speed velocities which mean that the galaxies should never have come back together.
–
An alternative view is that space was filled with large amounts of cooled down matter in waves of explosions that crossed each other causing focal points of reaccumulation resulting in newer smaller galaxies.
This would explain suns forming from gigantic masses of cold hydrogen, etc hitting or passing through each other leaving focal eddies of matter which could then coalesce to form suns and planets.
–
and how elliptical orbits of planets and stars can come into being.

” And where does it leave the alleged Earth’s greenhouse warming effect?
288K -220K=78K and because of Earth’s faster rotation a couple degrees less, perhaps.”
–
If the earth was an airless rock, your example fails . It could not have a GHG atmosphere so it would not be 288K in the first place
–
As it has faster rotation it would be a couple of degrees warmer than the moon surface,not less. so warmer than 220 K. As a bare rock.
–
As a planet with an atmosphere and a temp of 288C.
It now receives less energy to the surface directly.
and more energy to the atmosphere.
The energy in the atmosphere radiates in all directions thus lengthening the time some of the radiation takes to get in and increasing the number of CO2 atoms that are actively in the energy pathways.The net efect is

This is actually very good and effective reasoning with a salient point at the end.
Worth publishing?
” That is why the effective temperature for Moon is so much higher Te =271K, than the satellite measured Moon’s mean surface temperature Tsat = 220K.
It is because they have not considered the Moon’s specular reflection.
As a result the theoretical Te for Moon was overestimated by 271K – 220K = 51oC”
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Both the earth and the moon receive the same amount of radiation per square meter. 1361 W/M2 fact.

Both [reflection and emissions added] send 1361 W/M2 back into space per meter of disc or a quarter of this averaged over a sphere or half of this per meter averaged over a hemisphere. fact

The albedo of the moon 0.11
The albedo of earth 0.306 fact.

Specular radiation does not change this. Fact

The TE of the moon Te 270.4 C and that of the earth is Te 254 C due to the difference in the amount of light reflected only. Fact.

The Tmean and the Te for the moon surface are both measured at the moon surface as with virtually no atmosphere They are at the same level which is therefore the Moons TOA
The T mean is lower because the moon surface respective to the sun rotates extremely slowly hence the average of the cold and hot side surfaces is always lower than Te. Fact

The Tmean and Te for the earth or any planet with an atmosphere are measured at different levels.
A square meter at the earth surface is much larger at the Te height at the TOA.
Hence the surface of the earth radiates more energy per square meter and is hotter than the TE at the TOA where it is measured.
Fact

This is why the Earth is 33 degrees warmer.
It has an atmosphere with GHG whose absorption and emission profiles exactly match that needed to make the temperature differential occur.
Exactly. Fact

That is why we have radiative science and are able to measure temperatures from satellites. Fact

This would happen whether the planet is rotating or not. Fact

A rotating planet helps push the Tmean up to the Te for an airless planet
A rotating air planet is warmer than an airless planet at the surface
The Te does not change for an airless or air planet

Note the following conundrum or corollary and proof 17/3/2022.

Theoretically we could try imagine an atmospheric planet with a Te less than the Tmean.
All planets with no atmosphere have a Te higher than the Tmean.
All planets with an atmosphere should have a Te lower than the Tmean
Where does the crossover point occur?
The ingenious answer to this must be as soon as one designates a planet to have an atmosphere.
The Te must rise above the surface of the air planet yet fall below the Tmean of the the surface whether it is rotating or not.
This means that the TOA will always be higher in a rotating air planet.

February 12, 2022 3:08 pm

I love TOA posts.
The topic has been raised by Willis on a number of occasions
and shows that most other people have fixed ideas and not many clues.
[This applies to me as well].
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The first point is definition.
Where Is The Top Of The Atmosphere.
Cannot be answered without a definition of what is the TOA.
I note the proviso.
QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS
So just what is the TOA?
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 3:20 pm

Willis includes a definition in his topic today.

(TOA) radiation at the top of the atmosphere . This is the TOA balance between incoming sunlight (after some of the sunlight is reflected back to space) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the surface and the atmosphere.

The definition needs a number of important details added or clarified.
For instance is there a TOA on the dark side?
After all there is no incoming sunlight there.
Is the TOA a mathematical abstraction for the whole of the planet?
It is usually taken this way.
Is the TOA variable over the whole of the planet?
Yes.
The TOA locally is higher when the amount of incident sunlight is higher.
How does one address the fact that there is not an easily definable TOA on the darkside?. Do we take the lit side and average it with the dark side?
Yes.
And No.
The TOA can be considered as an averagefor the whole planet, treating it as a black-body [absorbed radiation] or as a grey body utilising albedo effect on the whole incident radiation.
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 3:33 pm

Where Is The Top Of The Atmosphere.
Where is the TOA ?
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A lot of different answers which is why I would appreciate an exact definition of which one we are discussing.
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One answer is that we consider the amount of sunlight incident on a disc the circumference of the earth at a distance of one solar unit from the sun on a plane parallel to the centre of the earth.
The top of the atmosphere is then defined as the average distance to that spherical surface that energy would radiate from if that surface was at the blackbody temperature fot that energy received by the disc.
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Phew..
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I doubt anyone can come up with a much better more exact definition although it has flaws.
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Any takers?
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A key flaw neglected by all is that the earth, having an atmosphere actually receives more energy that hits the atmosphere but missed the disc of the earth as that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere at the periphery but would miss the earth if there was no atmosphere.
The whole absorbing area is a disc of which the earth centre is only a major part.
I hope Willis factors this in.
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 3:46 pm

There are two deeply conflicting ideas at play here.
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One is the idea that an imbalance must exist because

• In order to restore the balance so that incoming solar radiation equals outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the surface perforce must, has to, is required to warm up until there’s enough additional upwelling longwave to restore the balance.
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The other that physics absolutely dictates that the outgoing energy must equal the in-going energy.
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There are time frames involved that suggest this is not so.
Physical observations that suggest this is not so
Leading to this statement that seems to make absolute sense.

• The amount of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases (methane, CFCs, etc.) is increasing. • This absorbs more upwelling longwave radiation, which leads to unbalanced radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This is the TOA balance between incoming sunlight (after some of the sunlight is reflected back to space) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the surface and the atmosphere.
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However, boring everyone to tears,
The two ideas as stated are fundamentally incompatible.
Hence we ignore the very physics everything is based on
To go with a concept of plausible imbalance.
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 3:54 pm

The two definitely coexist but are incompatible as we view physics on our intuition and observation.
One concept I have toyed with is that what we see on our time scale is not what is actually happening in the true time space continuum.
Just as the sun and the earth are travel ling in straight paths through time space but we see one orbiting around the other.
The explanation for this phenomenon is that distance and time warp.
If the time is the same the distance is different. If the distance is the same the time is different depending on frame of reference.
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I could and have argued that what we see as a build up of energy is really just our perception and the reality is that the energy entering and leaving the system actually has to balance.
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Crappy argument but the best example I could give for a possible divergence.
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 4:06 pm

If not, what are we left with?
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The definition of a TOA which is physically real rules out the very accumulation of energy that we see in the atmosphere.
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Again physics V observation.
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I point out that if a TOA exists, at the TOA , by any definition, the energy in always equals the energy going out.
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Must. Should. Could. Does.
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If not, do not call it a TOA..
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To illustrate.
Shine a light on an object and turn it off and describe to yourself the energy flow.
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I defy anybody to show how the energy stays in or on the object.
How after it is shone and turned off the object can legally retain any of that energy.
This is talking pure physics of energy and objects, and not solar batteries or internal energies, nuclear energies etc.
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Again any takings arguing physics?
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 4:26 pm

Hence as energy cannot be stored how can we talk about an energy imbalance?
There are three possible states?
Energy coming in.
Energy going out.
Energy going out coming back in and going out again.
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At all stages they are equal
At the TOA specifically the actual amount of radiation out is the full amount the earth receives in
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I could try to say that energy in equals energy out at all levels,not just at the TOA .
The reason the earth’s surface is hotter than the TOA is that the light and short wave that gets through is converted to IR at the surface [did not touch the atmosphere on the way through] and being back radiated heats the surface up much more than the atmosphere.
The thicker GHG atmosphere at the surface heats up the surface and itself until that outgoing energy reaches the level at which it is not blocked from going out.
No energy imbalance.
Everything is in balance.
Just the radiating surfaces are hotter which they have to be with that degree of radiation passing through
Not absorbed, Not stored.
R Ellison put it beautifully. The delay in that energy getting back out to space is microscopically small.
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 4:36 pm

The upshot of this is that there is no
• In order to restore the balance so that incoming solar radiation equals outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the surface perforce must, has to, is required to warm up until there’s enough additional upwelling longwave to restore the balance.
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The surface appears to warm up with radiation because we measure the temperature by measuring radiation, usually infra red.
What are we measuring?
We are measuring outgoing radiation.
The molecule has cooled down because that radiation has left it.
As we measure that it is it is warm no longer.
When there is back radiation we measure radiation and back radiation leaving those now cooler bodies.
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So sure it is hotter when more sun comes in.
When there is more water and CO2 GHG causing more back radiation on the way out from the light that reached the surface unimpeded.
But no storage.
There is no retention.
No imbalance.
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angech
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angech
February 12, 2022 5:10 pm

As a final comment, sorry Willis, for taking up so much space, consider the so called TOA measurements showing the so called but impossible imbalances.
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Firstly they can be positive or negative, always.
Which means they are variations in the ability of the measuring instruments, not real.
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There are two types of measurement, counting Earth shine estimations which agree poorly with Ceres particularly the last few years.
Satellites can and should take in most of the radiation from the earth.
Of course this means they would assess a TOA greater than what they claim to measure as they would get the radiation that hits the atmosphere outside of the disc of the earth, but who cares about a 3-10% discrepancy or adjustment due to this.
Does anyone know how this particular adjustment is done or do they even bother?
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Roy Spencer has categorically asserted that the satellites make large errors in assessing IR in regions with cloud cover.
Large errors.
Anyone care to corroborate this?
Anyway the Satellites offer the best assessment even though they are 10% or more out.

“TOA fluxes based on ADMs from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) applied to the same CERES radiance measurements show a 10% relative increase with viewing zenith angle in the SW and a 3.5% (9 W/sq m) decrease with viewing zenith angle in the LW.”

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To sum up,
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Energy imbalance as a concept allows de novo creation of energy in the atmosphere [storage of energy] which then allows GHG propnents to claim extra warming can continue to occur when physically all the energy that comes in [and there is a heck of a lot over 8 minutes from the sun] has gone 8 minutes later
We merelt observe. like with a thermometer how much energy is in our local area.
The world warms up and cools down through 15- 30C range every day.
No batteries store it at night or during the day.