pROBABILITY

Welcome everybody today to a talk on Probability and Gambling.
A subject I have more than a passion for as an occasional mathematician, a card player and gamer, an occasional not very successful gambler and as a long-term small stock market investor.
Everyone here has used the concept of Probability Theory countless times in their lives, usually successfully*, with an innate understanding of the ground rules despite no formal teaching in the matter. The discussion today may or may not improve your use of it but could add some interest to your lives in future.
We live in what some have described as a Goldilocks world +, Yet one that is also full of pitfalls and danger
What is Probability? A simple maze of contradictions and complexities.
Horatio
The time keeper
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of In your philosophy.

Possibility is pure imagination, the stuff of dreams with no real-life outcome or occurrence.
Practicality is an event or outcome or real life happening. Probability however is the science of imagination turning into reality Probability is a unique science, the only science that cannot be proved or falsified. “In theory, there is no difference between practice and theory. In practice, there is.“ Yogi Berra
Probability is the likelihood that something is to happen expressed in percentage terms. It is the difference between practice and theory. It is a consideration of the chance of any event we care to consider happening in the future. People have played games of chance for virtually all of written history. The Egyptians played with dice around 3000 B.C.
As a science probability theory has always been intricately associated with gaming and gambling.
Yet “God may not play dice with the universe”- Albert Einstein,
Any event, happening, an object and a time all have this uniqueness in common in our world.
The probability of their existence or non-existence always sums up to one.
In Probability the occurrence of an event is called P and the non-occurrence 1-P.
Take an apple on a table . It is either there or not there.
Determining the chance of it being there is complicated by many factors beyond our control.
If we can stipulate the factors, we can estimate that probability for the factors that we know.
The golden rule is that a probability must always lie somewhere between 0 ,non existing, and 1, completely existing.
To this end we often describe it in terms of percentage as a percentage is usually expressed in terms of a hundredth of one.
Originally Probability found application as strategy in games of chance then in all forms of gaming and warfare. Virtually every aspect of business life and activity from the stock market to pensions , annuities and life insurance use it. It has found niches in every field of scientific testing. Weather prediction, shipping and air traffic control and even in store inventories. In the personal field it can even help you find the perfect match in life. It is paramount in the medical field in both evaluating the success of drugs in drug trials but also in diagnosis of cancers. Offshoots include medical equipment like CT scanners and MRI’s. Now we have the advent of AI. Sadly, back to warfare, the Terminator is approaching reality.

The use of the numbers 1-9 came from India to the Arab world, modified by adding in the number zero. It reached Spain and Italy by 1000 A.D Probability has only developed as a science in the last 400 years when European mathematicians were able to consider it and subjects such as Gravity, calculus, the movement of the planets with mathematics
In 1654 Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier deMere, a French nobleman was puzzled by an apparent contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; Would betting on a double six in 24 throws be profitable? He was trying to establish if such an event has probability greater than 0.5.
Puzzled by this and other similar gambling problems he called the attention of the famous mathematician Blaise Pascal. In turn this led to an exchange of letters between Pascal and French mathematician Pierre de Fermat. Probability science was born. The first documented evidence of the fundamental principles of the theory of probability.

“The basic bit is that most events [choices] in life are binary. A Bernoulli trial (or binomial trial) is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes, “success” and “failure”, in which the probability of success is the same every time the experiment is conducted. Either/ or, The fire or the frying pan, flight or fright. Heads or tails, sink or swim. There is a principle called Occam’s Razor, a razor being a sharp simple choice ”The simplest explanation is usually the best one” Events exist in a sample space. This can be discrete, continuously discrete or continuous. The number of probable events that can occur in a sample space at any one time must always add up to one. When sample spaces overlap as in having different times and different numbers of events the same rule applies. In all simple or basic probabilities decision tree diagrams are used to help work out individual choice ratios and total number of outcomes per run of events. Large data sets take massive amounts of time to work out tree branch solutions . Listing all possible outcomes from tossing a coin 64 times in a row leads to a gigantic number> Immortalised in the story of a grain of wheat on a chessboard doubled every square.* 2 to the power of 64 = 18,446,744,073,709,551,616. 2 to the power of 63 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.

Baye’s theorem “New information should be given proportional rather than equal status initially.” Or don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. One man, Bayes , came up with the idea that led to Probability being able to be used for real life situations involving many different choices occurring randomly. This allows the original data to combine with new data without making large new adjustments. Baye’s Theorem, properly applied, enables Probability predicting easily on complex data bases when new information is provided. This then enables previous predictions to be altered and extended as in weather forecasting. It helps improve the accuracy hence safety of the standard deviation ranges for structures like Bridges, roads and aeroplane wings. It enables greater accuracy in prediction of health outcomes and life expectancies It allows continual modification in the direction of the new data without changing the thrust of the original hard-earned data. Bayes’ theorem (alternatively Bayes’ law or Bayes’ rule), named after Thomas Bayes, describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.[1]
Probability events coexist with a new style of maths called Set Theory. A schematic effective in dealing with multiple events occurring over multiple fields. Some events are dependent on previous events. Others occur in the same time frames with no dependence on each other.
I am not even going to try to explain Set theory rules like -P[A] plus P[A*] =1 the probability of something occurring and not occurring equals one. – P[A] plus P[B]= P[A]XP[B] -P[A] to….. P[X] =1 -P[A] given P[B] [dependent] = P[A] +P[B] Set theory and Venn diagrams differ in the rules of addition and multiplication because they deal with percentages in a fixed range of 1.

Are you lucky? Seriously? Have you won the lottery? Do good things happen to you in life?
When we study Probability, we unconsciously assign merit to one side of a choice and detriment to the other. Having a windfall, attaining a good job, having a happy childhood and happy family when we grow up. Avoiding illness and debt. Luck appears to be a random quality and Lady Luck chooses whomsoever she wants.
Phil Bradbury winning his gold medal in skating for Australia. Finding a Picasso in a second-hand shop. Having a medical event just after retiring.
Luck, good luck, is beating the odds the odds in a desirable way. In other words moving to the right side of the average outcome. But is it truly random?
Events are random, people are random, and outcomes seem random but the degree to which probability rules in our lives can be altered by our own actions. “The more I practice, the luckier I get.” Used by Gary Player The choices we make, whether we have free will or not, influence both the direction we go in and the outcomes we achieve.
We initiate those choices by choosing whether or not to take action, how much and where we apply it. This does not guarantee success, but it increases the chance of success.
The fellow who finished second to Bradbury and Bradbury himself took steps to try to win a medal. They spent years practicing and honing their skills. They had genetic skills that let them skate extremely well. They were born at the right time to compete in an Olympic Games at a good racing age. Probability dictated that Bradbury should lose. Luck decided that he reached a pinnacle first.

Nothing is permanent except the fact of change’
To be, or not to be, that is the question: Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles, And by opposing end them:
If luck is a matter of common sense and application why isn’t everyone happy and lucky and successful? The answer is that other people are also trying to improve their lives and their odds in the great Probability race of life. This reduces the chances of others who are competing for the same goals. One of the rules of physics is for each force there is an equal and opposing force. Another is that nature abhors a vacuum. Basically every system achieves a balance where it can, a stable or comfortable position where all those forces of randomness settle down and a status quo is established. This balance is always at risk from external and internal forces. Taking the earth as an example it could be hit by a meteor or have a volcanic eruption. In the societies we live in, we can affect both ourselves and others with our actions. When we take action improving our odds we reduce the odds for someone else. Since they are capable of taking action themselves there will be a push back effect. There is also collateral improvement and damage to others of a lesser nature. the ripples and butterfly wings we might see and cannot see.

The world

The earth we live on has three usual outer layers.
The atmosphere in gas phase, the oceans etc in liquid phase and the crust in solid mineral phase or as ice and snow.
It has an inbuilt source of heat which is important.
The vast majority of the heat present at the surface comes externally from the sun.

The minerals making up the earth are the original source of the atmosphere and the oceans.*
* some people claim meteorites are an additional source of water.
The earth is basically a hot meteorite slightly cooling down.
If we could imagine it a lot further away from the sun in orbit we would find it to have very little atmosphere as most of the oxygen and nitrogen would be frozen as a layer on the surface with the oceans as solid ice.*
* different scenarios exist.

The first and most important comment is that the earth, and meteorites have a pH depending on their mineral composition which for the earth is around pH 8.1.
When the temperature increases ( planet closer to the sun in our case) water becomes liquid on top of the solid mineral surface and engages in chemical reactions which lead to it equilibrating with the pH of the surface of the earth in general.*
*pH varies according to the minerals and compounds both in the water and in contact with the water..

The second comment is that when water is present a third gaseous layer develops from the large amount of gases given off by the warming water.
This is far greater than any trace gas atmosphere on a water less solid planetoid such as on the surface of the moon.
The gases in the atmosphere are present as per Boyle’s law each by how much is dissolved in the water at that temperature and pressure from the solids presented by the earth..
Oxygen has a special place as it would normally be in mineral or part of water only on a cold lifeless planet.

The formulae for determining the amount of CO2 in the air are quite clear.
CO2 in the air is present in minuscule amounts compared to CO2/H2CO3 various forms and CaCO3 in water.
In turn the earth has massive amounts of CaCO3 and other Carbonates not only in its surface layer but also deeper.

The earth pH 8.1 is in equilibrium with the water pH 8.1 overall.*
*obviously pH is constantly varying depending on temperature and depth. Being in equilibrium overall does not mean it is the same everywhere at the same time.

The CO2 in the atmosphere has been there for over the last two billion years. It comes from the water dissolving carbonates when it is warm enough to do so.
The water then keeps an average 400 ppm in the atmosphere
At a yearly average surface temperature of 14.9 C at 1 atmosphere of pressure.

Monckton

dikranmarsupial says:
February 4, 2023 at 4:53 pm
” Monckton has an algorithm for cherry picking the start point, but it is still cherry picking. His algorithm is selecting the start point that maximises the strength of his argument (at least for a lay audience that doesn’t understand the pitfalls).”

DM this is not correct.
ATTP and Willis have used algorithms for most but one of their pauses but Monckton never has.

The algorithms incorporating trends are specific to the charts and data used.
One can cherry pick the length of which one of the steps one wants to use,
but, importantly one cannot rig a flat trend.

Because Monckton uses a pause, a new pause, this can only go to the end point of the current date and changes from the new date.
Thus he has never selected start point that maximizes the strength of his argument.
The fact that the pause can lengthen or shorten means he has never cherry picked a starting point.

Willis, unlike ATTP shows part of a truly long pause from 1997 to 2012.
ATTP breaks it down to two different pauses by incorporating different start and end dates.
Interesting.

” Harrison Bergeron ” by Kurt Vonnegut.

https://scifi.stackexchange.com › questions › 176944 › short-story-where-everyone-must-be-equal
Short story where everyone must be equal – Science Fiction & Fantasy …
That would be ” Harrison Bergeron ” by Kurt Vonnegut. THE YEAR WAS 2081, and everybody was finally equal. They weren’t only equal before God and the law. They were equal every which way. Nobody was smarter than anybody else. Nobody was better looking than anybody else. Nobody was stronger or quicker than anybody else.

HARRISON BERGERON by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
THE YEAR WAS 2081, and everybody was finally equal. They weren’t only equal
before God and the law. They were equal every which way. Nobody was smarter
than anybody else. Nobody was better looking than anybody else. Nobody was
stronger or quicker than anybody else. All this equality was due to the
211th, 212th, and 213 th Amendments to the Constitution, and to the unceasing
vigilance of agents of the United States Handicapper General.
Some things about living still weren’t quite right, though. April for
instance, still drove people crazy by not being springtime. And it was in
that clammy month that the H-G men took George and Hazel Bergeron’s fourteen-
year-old son, Harrison, away.
It was tragic, all right, but George and Hazel couldn’t think about it very
hard. Hazel had a perfectly average intelligence, which meant she couldn’t
think about anything except in short bursts. And George, while his
intelligence was way above normal, had a little mental handicap radio in his
ear. He was required by law to wear it at all times. It was tuned to a
government transmitter. Every twenty seconds or so, the transmitter would
send out some sharp noise to keep people like George from taking unfair
George and Hazel were watching television. There were tears on Hazel’s
cheeks, but she’d forgotten for the moment what they were about.
On the television screen were ballerinas.
A buzzer sounded in George’s head. His thoughts fled in panic, like bandits
from a burglar alarm.
“That was a real pretty dance, that dance they just did,” said Hazel.
“Huh” said George.”That dance-it was nice,” said Hazel.
“Yup,” said George. He tried to think a little about the ballerinas. They
weren’t really very good-no better than anybody else would have been, anyway.
They were burdened with sashweights and bags of birdshot, and their faces
were masked, so that no one, seeing a free and graceful gesture or a pretty
face, would feel like something the cat drug in. George was toying with the
vague notion that maybe dancers shouldn’t be handicapped. But he didn’t get
very far with it before another noise in his ear radio scattered his
thoughts.
George winced. So did two out of the eight ballerinas.
Hazel saw him wince. Having no mental handicap herself, she had to ask George
what the latest sound had been.
“Sounded like somebody hitting a milk bottle with a ball peen hammer,” said
George.
“I’d think it would be real interesting, hearing all the different sounds,”
said Hazel a little envious. “All the things they think up.”
“Um,” said George.
“Only, if I was Handicapper General, you know what I would do?” said Hazel.
Hazel, as a matter of fact, bore a strong resemblance to the Handicapper
General, a woman named Diana Moon Glampers. “If I was Diana Moon Glampers,”
said Hazel, “I’d have chimes on Sunday-just chimes. Kind of in honor of
religion.”
“I could think, if it was just chimes,” said George.
“Well-maybe make ’em real loud,” said Hazel. “I think I’d make a good
Handicapper General.” “Good as anybody else,” said George.
“Who knows better then I do what normal is?” said Hazel.
“Right,” said George. He began to think glimmeringly about his abnormal son
who was now in jail, about Harrison, but a twenty-one-gun salute in his head
stopped that.
“Boy!” said Hazel, “that was a doozy, wasn’t it?”
It was such a doozy that George was white and trembling, and tears stood on
the rims of his red eyes. Two of of the eight ballerinas had collapsed to the
studio floor, were holding their temples.
“All of a sudden you look so tired,” said Hazel. “Why don’t you stretch out
on the sofa, so’s you can rest your handicap bag on the pillows, honeybunch.”
She was referring to the forty-seven pounds of birdshot in a canvas bag,
which was padlocked around George’s neck. “Go on and rest the bag for a
little while,” she said. “I don’t care if you’re not equal to me for a
while.”
George weighed the bag with his hands. “I don’t mind it,” he said. “I don’t
notice it any more. It’s just a part of me.”
“You been so tired lately-kind of wore out,” said Hazel. “If there was just
some way we could make a little hole in the bottom of the bag, and just take
out a few of them lead balls. Just a few.”
“Two years in prison and two thousand dollars fine for every ball I took
out,” said George. “I don’t call that a bargain.”
“If you could just take a few out when you came home from work,” said Hazel.
“I mean-you don’t compete with anybody around here. You just set around.”
“If I tried to get away with it,” said George, “then other people’d get away
with it-and pretty soon we’d be right back to the dark ages again, with
everybody competing against everybody else. You wouldn’t like that, would
you?”
“I’d hate it,” said Hazel.
“There you are,” said George. The minute people start cheating on laws, what
do you think happens to society?”
If Hazel hadn’t been able to come up with an answer to this question, George
couldn’t have supplied one. A siren was going off in his head.
“Reckon it’d fall all apart,” said Hazel.
“What would?” said George blankly.
“Society,” said Hazel uncertainly. “Wasn’t that what you just said?
“Who knows?” said George.
The television program was suddenly interrupted for a news bulletin. It
wasn’t clear at first as to what the bulletin was about, since the announcer,
like all announcers, had a serious speech impediment. For about half a
minute, and in a state of high excitement, the announcer tried to say,
He finally gave up, handed the bulletin to a ballerina to read.
“That’s all right-” Hazel said of the announcer, “he tried. That’s the big
thing. He tried to do the best he could with what God gave him. He should get
a nice raise for trying so hard.”
have been extraordinarily beautiful, because the mask she wore was hideous.
And it was easy to see that she was the strongest and most graceful of all
the dancers, for her handicap bags were as big as those worn by two-hundred
pound men.
And she had to apologize at once for her voice, which was a very unfair voice
for a woman to use. Her voice was a warm, luminous, timeless melody. “Excuse
me-” she said, and she began again, making her voice absolutely
uncompetitive.
“Harrison Bergeron, age fourteen,” she said in a grackle squawk, “has just
escaped from jail, where he was held on suspicion of plotting to overthrow
the government. He is a genius and an athlete, is under-handicapped, and
should be regarded as extremely dangerous.”
A police photograph of Harrison Bergeron was flashed on the screen-upside
down, then sideways, upside down again, then right side up. The picture
showed the full length of Harrison against a background calibrated in feet
and inches. He was exactly seven feet tall.
The rest of Harrison’s appearance was Halloween and hardware. Nobody had ever
born heavier handicaps. He had outgrown hindrances faster than the H-G men
could think them up. Instead of a little ear radio for a mental handicap, he
wore a tremendous pair of earphones, and spectacles with thick wavy lenses.
The spectacles were intended to make him not only half blind, but to give him
Scrap metal was hung all over him. Ordinarily, there was a certain symmetry,
a military neatness to the handicaps issued to strong people, but Harrison
looked like a walking junkyard. In the race of life, Harrison carried three
hundred pounds.
And to offset his good looks, the H-G men required that he wear at all times
a red rubber ball for a nose, keep his eyebrows shaved off, and cover his
even white teeth with black caps at snaggle-tooth random.
“If you see this boy,” said the ballerina, “do not – I repeat, do not – try
to reason with him.”
There was the shriek of a door being torn from its hinges.
Screams and barking cries of consternation came from the television set. The
photograph of Harrison Bergeron on the screen jumped again and again, as
though dancing to the tune of an earthquake.
George Bergeron correctly identified the earthquake, and well he might have –
for many was the time his own home had danced to the same crashing tune. “My
God-” said George, “that must be Harrison!”
The realization was blasted from his mind instantly by the sound of an
When George could open his eyes again, the photograph of Harrison was gone. A
living, breathing Harrison filled the screen.
Clanking, clownish, and huge, Harrison stood – in the center of the studio.
The knob of the uprooted studio door was still in his hand. Ballerinas,
technicians, musicians, and announcers cowered on their knees before him,
expecting to die.
“I am the Emperor!” cried Harrison. “Do you hear? I am the Emperor! Everybody
must do what I say at once!” He stamped his foot and the studio shook.
“Even as I stand here” he bellowed, “crippled, hobbled, sickened – I am a
greater ruler than any man who ever lived! Now watch me become what I can
become!”
Harrison tore the straps of his handicap harness like wet tissue paper, tore
straps guaranteed to support five thousand pounds.
Harrison’s scrap-iron handicaps crashed to the floor.
Harrison thrust his thumbs under the bar of the padlock that secured his head
harness. The bar snapped like celery. Harrison smashed his headphones and
spectacles against the wall.
He flung away his rubber-ball nose, revealed a man that would have awed Thor,
the god of thunder.
“I shall now select my Empress!” he said, looking down on the cowering
people. “Let
the first woman who dares rise to her feet claim her mate and her throne!”
A moment passed, and then a ballerina arose, swaying like a willow.
Harrison plucked the mental handicap from her ear, snapped off her physical
handicaps with marvelous delicacy. Last of all he removed her mask.
She was blindingly beautiful.
“Now-” said Harrison, taking her hand, “shall we show the people the meaning
of the word dance? Music!” he commanded.
The musicians scrambled back into their chairs, and Harrison stripped them of
their handicaps, too. “Play your best,” he told them, “and I’ll make you
barons and dukes and earls.”
The music began. It was normal at first-cheap, silly, false. But Harrison
snatched two musicians from their chairs, waved them like batons as he sang
the music as he wanted it played. He slammed them back into their chairs.
The music began again and was much improved.
Harrison and his Empress merely listened to the music for a while-listened
gravely, as though synchronizing their heartbeats with it.
They shifted their weights to their toes.
Harrison placed his big hands on the girls tiny waist, letting her sense the
weightlessness that would soon be hers.
And then, in an explosion of joy and grace, into the air they sprang!
Not only were the laws of the land abandoned, but the law of gravity and the
laws of motion as well.
They reeled, whirled, swiveled, flounced, capered, gamboled, and spun.
They leaped like deer on the moon.
The studio ceiling was thirty feet high, but each leap brought the dancers
nearer to it.
It became their obvious intention to kiss the ceiling. They kissed it.
And then, neutraling gravity with love and pure will, they remained suspended
in air inches below the ceiling, and they kissed each other for a long, long
time.
It was then that Diana Moon Glampers, the Handicapper General, came into the
studio with a double-barreled ten-gauge shotgun. She fired twice, and the
Emperor and the Empress were dead before they hit the floor.
Diana Moon Glampers loaded the gun again. She aimed it at the musicians and
told them they had ten seconds to get their handicaps back on.
It was then that the Bergerons’ television tube burned out.
Hazel turned to comment about the blackout to George. But George had gone out
into the kitchen for a can of beer.
George came back in with the beer, paused while a handicap signal shook him
up. And then he sat down again. “You been crying” he said to Hazel.
“Yup,” she said. “What about?” he said.
“I forget,” she said. “Something real sad on television.”
“What was it?” he said.
“It’s all kind of mixed up in my mind,” said Hazel.
“I always do,” said Hazel.
“That’s my girl,” said George. He winced. There was the sound of a rivetting
“Gee – I could tell that one was a doozy,” said Hazel.
“You can say that again,” said George.
“Gee-” said Hazel, “I could tell that one was a doozy.”
“Harrison Bergeron” is copyrighted by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr., 1961.

Angech’s immodest game

angech | October 2, 2022 at 10:04 pm |

For Willard
Angech’s immodest game
A French Defense against a modest AI.
open source Garbochess-JS
Angech as black.
1 e4 e6 2 d4 d5 3 e5 c5 4 exc5 Nc6
5 Nc3 Qh4 6 Nf3 Qb4 7 a3 Qxc5 8 Bb5 a6
9 Be3 Qe7 10 Bd3 QC7 11 Bf4 f5! 12 0-0 Nf6!
13 Qe1 Ne4 14 h3 h6 15 g4 g6 16 gx5f gxf5
17 Qe2 Rg8 18 Kh8 Bc5 19 Na4 Ba7 20 Nc3 Ng5
21Nxg5 Bd7 22 Qe1 0-0-0 22 Ka1 Bc5 23Na4 Ba7
24 Nc3 Ng5! 26 Nxg5 h6xg5 27 Bg5 Rxh3 28Kb2 Nxe5
29BXd8 Qxd8 30 Kxh3 … leading to a forced checkmate starting with Qh8
then a unique Q march down the board 1 square at a time
Qg7, Qh6, Qg5, Qh5, Qg4, Qh4, Qg4, and finish off with Qh3 if Kh1 then Nf3
or Nf3 if Kh2 then Qh3
The opening is blah
The mid game enterprising.
The ending is fantastic. Hope people appreciate it.

At the top-of-atmosphere (TOA]

The average global net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is defined as the difference between the energy absorbed and emitted by the planet.
In an equilibrium climate state, the global net radiation at the TOA is zero.
In the presence of an increasing climate forcing, an imbalance between the energy absorbed and emitted occurs,
and in response the climate system must react to restore the balance (e.g., by changing temperature).
The rate at which the earth reacts is modulated by its capacity to store energy.
Given that oceans are 10 times more efficient at storing heat than other components of the climate system (e.g., land, ice, atmosphere; Levitus et al. 2001),
the global net radiation at the TOA should be in phase with and of similar magnitude as the global ocean heat storage.

At the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the Earth’s energy budget involves a balance between how
much solar energy Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation is emitted to space.
Since only radiative energy is involved, this is also referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). NG Loeb, W Su et al 2016

A natural balance exists in the Earth system between incoming solar radiation and outgoing radiation that is emitted back to space as either light (direct reflection of sunlight)
or heat (infrared emission from surfaces).
This balance, referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB), determines the climate of the Earth and makes our planet hospitable for life.
Chemical Sciences Laboratory NOAA

Earth’s Energy Budget
The TOA ERB describes the balance between how much solar energy the Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation it emits.
N.G. Loeb, … W.F. Miller, in Comprehensive Remote Sensing, 2018
The average global net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is defined as the difference between the energy absorbed and emitted by the planet.
In an equilibrium climate state, the global net radiation at the TOA is zero.
In the presence of an increasing climate forcing, an imbalance between the energy absorbed and emitted occurs,
and in response the climate system must react to restore the balance (e.g., by changing temperature).
The rate at which the earth reacts is modulated by its capacity to store energy.
Given that oceans are 10 times more efficient at storing heat than other components of the climate system (e.g., land, ice, atmosphere; Levitus et al. 2001),
the global net radiation at the TOA should be in phase with and of similar magnitude as the global ocean heat storage.

At the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the Earth’s energy budget involves a balance between how
much solar energy Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation is emitted to space.
Since only radiative energy is involved, this is also referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). NG Loeb, W Su et al 2016

A natural balance exists in the Earth system between incoming solar radiation and outgoing radiation that is emitted back to space as either light (direct reflection of sunlight)
or heat (infrared emission from surfaces).
This balance, referred to as Earth’s radiation budget (ERB), determines the climate of the Earth and makes our planet hospitable for life.
Chemical Sciences Laboratory NOAA

Earth’s Energy Budget
The TOA ERB describes the balance between how much solar energy the Earth absorbs and how much terrestrial thermal infrared radiation it emits.
N.G. Loeb, … W.F. Miller, in Comprehensive Remote Sensing, 2018

For ATTP on origin of galaxies

angech says:
July 20, 2022 at 6:35 am

izen says: July 18, 2022 at 2:16 pm
“One is the comment that we can see galaxies 13.8 billion years ago.
No one explains how the further out we look we find galaxies and stars That we compare to our own even though they have not existed as such for 13.8 billion years.”
The universe is much larger than 13.8 billion years across due to space expansion, the most recent estimate I have seen is around 95 billion light years.”

Size of the visible universe is partly dependent on how good our “optics” are.
If something is out there 14.2 billion light years away we probably would not see [detect ]it with our current science.
As DM said “How bright would a mega star have to be”.
Even other universes from other big bangs [if we consider our “universe” to have a single origin would be hard pressed to trouble the cosmic microwave background radiation let alone be seen.

The size of the visible universe is thus only double the 13.8 billion years, 27.6 billion years.
Since it has been expanding at less than the speed of light [caveat] the actual universe would be only perhaps 54 billion years old at the moment.

“The universe is around 95 billion light years across.” is an estimate based on maths and physics theories and until everyone agrees on those we might be better sticking to the speed of light time and distance observations.
Thank you for putting it and the concept up.
The big bang itself had so much matter and energy that our current concepts of time and the speed of light back then go out the window.

angech says:
July 20, 2022 at 6:56 am

…and Then There’s Physics says: July 18, 2022 at 7:29 am

“As I understand it, the galaxies in the galaxy cluster that was imaged by JWST were about 4.6 billion years old”.

The articles being written by journalists seem to be conflating such galaxies with the concept of being able to look back a lot further in time.

The original hot explosion or event being that long ago that the first clumps of plasma for want of a better word were supposed to form mega stars of very short life span which threw out clumps of matter [including some heavier elements than H, He] to form the original galaxies which were also very large [hence visible faintly] and then possibly another two iterations to get to our young star and young galaxy.
The materials greater than iron on the periodic table, gold being the best example, are thought to have come from arcane processes in past supernovae.

It is hard to imagine our sun being the remnant of a 13.8 billion year chunk of hop plasma cooling down over that length of time.
Further such explosions cause escape speed velocities which mean that the galaxies should never have come back together.

An alternative view is that space was filled with large amounts of cooled down matter in waves of explosions that crossed each other causing focal points of reaccumulation resulting in newer smaller galaxies.
This would explain suns forming from gigantic masses of cold hydrogen, etc hitting or passing through each other leaving focal eddies of matter which could then coalesce to form suns and planets.

and how elliptical orbits of planets and stars can come into being.
July 20, 2022 at 6:35 am

izen says: July 18, 2022 at 2:16 pm
“One is the comment that we can see galaxies 13.8 billion years ago.
No one explains how the further out we look we find galaxies and stars That we compare to our own even though they have not existed as such for 13.8 billion years.”
The universe is much larger than 13.8 billion years across due to space expansion, the most recent estimate I have seen is around 95 billion light years.”

Size of the visible universe is partly dependent on how good our “optics” are.
If something is out there 14.2 billion light years away we probably would not see [detect ]it with our current science.
As DM said “How bright would a mega star have to be”.
Even other universes from other big bangs [if we consider our “universe” to have a single origin would be hard pressed to trouble the cosmic microwave background radiation let alone be seen.

The size of the visible universe is thus only double the 13.8 billion years, 27.6 billion years.
Since it has been expanding at less than the speed of light [caveat] the actual universe would be only perhaps 54 billion years old at the moment.

“The universe is around 95 billion light years across.” is an estimate based on maths and physics theories and until everyone agrees on those we might be better sticking to the speed of light time and distance observations.
Thank you for putting it and the concept up.
The big bang itself had so much matter and energy that our current concepts of time and the speed of light back then go out the window.

angech says:
July 20, 2022 at 6:56 am

…and Then There’s Physics says: July 18, 2022 at 7:29 am

“As I understand it, the galaxies in the galaxy cluster that was imaged by JWST were about 4.6 billion years old”.

The articles being written by journalists seem to be conflating such galaxies with the concept of being able to look back a lot further in time.

The original hot explosion or event being that long ago that the first clumps of plasma for want of a better word were supposed to form mega stars of very short life span which threw out clumps of matter [including some heavier elements than H, He] to form the original galaxies which were also very large [hence visible faintly] and then possibly another two iterations to get to our young star and young galaxy.
The materials greater than iron on the periodic table, gold being the best example, are thought to have come from arcane processes in past supernovae.

It is hard to imagine our sun being the remnant of a 13.8 billion year chunk of hop plasma cooling down over that length of time.
Further such explosions cause escape speed velocities which mean that the galaxies should never have come back together.

An alternative view is that space was filled with large amounts of cooled down matter in waves of explosions that crossed each other causing focal points of reaccumulation resulting in newer smaller galaxies.
This would explain suns forming from gigantic masses of cold hydrogen, etc hitting or passing through each other leaving focal eddies of matter which could then coalesce to form suns and planets.

and how elliptical orbits of planets and stars can come into being.

Rotary speech 13/7/2022 Role of Chairman

Dear fellow Rotarians

Could I ask you all to stand and join me in drinking a toast [invocation

For good food , good fellowship and the opportunity to serve rotary, we give thanks

-pause

Now I will ask the sergeant of the day, Ian Powell, to give the Loyal toast

Ian Powell
[“To Rotary International and Australia.”]

Thank you Ian

and you will always be sustained by the fellowship and esteem of us all.

welcome back to our first meeting following a changing of the guard last week.
I note that the ROTARY THEME FOR July This month’s theme is New Leadership Month

Some small steps to go through
I welcome everyone here today especially our new President Andrew, our new Paul Harris medal recipient, Danny, and especially our new member, Phil Stammers.
We also have present our past District chair Laurie Fagan and his wife anne
and other Rotary club members geoff and tracey.
I would like to call on Rotary members present to introduce their guests.
Phil [wife]

I will now hand over to Ian to conduct the meeting

or

starting with any announcements from club directors and any news that members of the club would like to share business for the day.

I will hand over to the Sergeant of the day for our fines session.

Check that the person introducing the guest speaker is present [me]
and has received the speaker’s resume
and has sufficient information to give a dignified introduction.

Check that the person doing the Thanks to Speaker [me]is in attendance and has the certificate or gift, as appropriate in your club.

THE FOUR-WAY-TEST … What does it mean?
For Rotary, The Four-Way Test is the cornerstone of all action. It has been for years, and it will be in the future. Of the things we think, say or do
Is it the TRUTH? Is it FAIR to all concerned Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS? Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?
The test is one of the hallmarks of Rotary. Since it was developed in 1932 by Herbert J. Taylor, who later became RI president, it has never ceased to be relevant. Its four brief questions are not based on culture or religion. Instead, they are a simple checklist for ethical behavior. They transcend generations and national borders.
As Rotarians, we should have The Four-Way Test in mind in every decision we make, all day long.
Rotary is dedicated to causes that build international relationships, improve lives, and create a better world to support our peace efforts and end polio forever.
We now have a new President, Andrew Pogue ,who will be to carry out Rotary’s Objective,
with its five avenues of service as a constant guide.
It is also the day on which we ask our new member Phil Stammers to tell us a bit more about himself.
It is with pleasure that I now extend to you the right hand of Rotary fellowship & give you a hearty welcome as a member of the Rotary Club of_S Central
Before we go further can I mention our guests for today,
would also congratulate past President Danny Hogan on his second Paul Harris Medal
A WELCOME…to District Governor 2022-2023 MINA HOWARD? no
Idea Contribute to a Guest Speaker Ban
1,200,000 members, 35,000 clubs worldwide; 197 countries in world

Stop the Ukraine War.

The power of individuals to enact change on their own is minute.
Collective action is a little better but is limited takes a lot of time and effort.
Social media allows Multiple groups across the world to engage in collective action at the same real time.
This magnifies the ability to create change quickly.

The wear in the Ukraine needs action on multiple fronts.
It needs leadership from the major representatives of our countries and grass roots action.

The United Nations must unite and put out a call for the war to stop immediately.
The aggressor, in this case Russia, should be stripped of all rights of representation at all levels until the war stops.

Europe and Nato must issue similar calls for the war to stop and offer to put in peacekeeping forces now.
The United Nations, Europe and Nato should send peace keeping forces in regardless now.
Not to fight unless fired on.
Only to go in if Ukraine supports their coming in.
To leave immediately if the Ukraine requests.
With a large number of countries represented by troops on the ground Russia will have to halt its indiscriminate bombing.

The USA should also offer to send troops in on these conditions
All other world countries including the big two India and China should help.
People on the ground, not fighting but ready to respond would create a situation the Russian army would not want to upset.

Volunteers could be called up to go in such a situation, similar to the Spanish Civil war, not to fight but too prevent fighting.
The slow build up and reluctance to take even a defensive helpful position has created an extremely bad image for all nations.
This would not be needed if the nations of the world do what they should have done in the first place.
Time for them to step forwards and act, not aggressively, but defensively, saying we are all in this together.
Send enough people in so the Russians cannot kill people.

The other side of the coin is the Russian people themselves.
A reckoning needs to be called within Russia.
Over the last 10 years the Russians have been mixing better with the rest of the world on the internet and logistically.
People in St Petersberg and Moscow have enjoyed freedoms that they thought were guaranteed until now.
Social Media impact must register and does register.
Everyone who has an option, tweeting, facebooking [if allowed], phoning should do it.
They need to push and push for peace with their politicians.
They must put out a call for the Russian people to take action and demand their leader change course.
This is possible in the new Russia, and needs people to be reassured that their actions will be supported.

angech | April 30, 2022 at 6:41 am | Reply

On a lighter note the last day of April and soon a new global temperature for April.
Currently the year is running about 6th warmest.
We have had two of the weakest La Ninas I have ever seen after a strong El Nino with carried on warmth between the two La Ninas which hardly budged the BOM chart.

Now we have a series of interesting factors in play.
Cold waters coming up the South American Coast.
Cool Eastern Pacific waters.
A SOI of 21.8 when it looked like going negative.
A mild rise in UAH only in March.
Antarctic ice still under but rising slightly.
Arctic Ice in the 10th lowest and has been 12th lowest recently.
The ducks are all lined up in a row for a drop in April Global Temperatures.
I hate writing this because Roy Spencer reads it and it causes the UAH to go the other way.

Nonetheless a big drop in temperatures for April.
If Only.

Difficulties

” And where does it leave the alleged Earth’s greenhouse warming effect?
288K -220K=78K and because of Earth’s faster rotation a couple degrees less, perhaps.”

If the earth was an airless rock, your example fails . It could not have a GHG atmosphere so it would not be 288K in the first place

As it has faster rotation it would be a couple of degrees warmer than the moon surface,not less. so warmer than 220 K. As a bare rock.

As a planet with an atmosphere and a temp of 288C.
It now receives less energy to the surface directly.
and more energy to the atmosphere.
The energy in the atmosphere radiates in all directions thus lengthening the time some of the radiation takes to get in and increasing the number of CO2 atoms that are actively in the energy pathways.The net efect is