At last a real discussion

warmist position “ YES ”
Thanks Willard.
Also a skeptic position is it not, so not much help there.

I am appreciative of your pointing out some of the difficulties in giving cogent arguments to every problem when some appear to have been rushed or not explained as well as they could be. Along with Izen we seem to be a tag team I was not expecting. Try some honey and lemon juice and lots of rest to get better quickly. oseltamivir Tamiflu®), zanamivir Relenza®) anti flu virus drugs might help if very crook??

Came across an Aussie? Steve Sherwood Director, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW with a piece showing the problems with using the hot spot argument.
“” Climate meme debunked as the ‘tropospheric hot spot’ is found ” ** 2015
1. If you cannot find it, debunk its importance by saying it is a general sign of temperature increase, not a fingerprint of climate change.
2. If you can find it, insist on its importance as proof.
This article happily does both.

Quoting Skeptical science [abridged by me]
“Why should there be a ‘hotspot’ in the atmosphere above the tropics?
Most of Earth’s incoming energy from the sun is received in the tropics, strong evaporation there removes a lot of heat from the ocean surface. This heat is hidden (latent)
Strong evaporative uplift occurs near the equator due to the intense solar heating of the ocean there, forcing s the evaporated water (water vapour) to ascend up through the atmosphere. Because the temperature in the atmosphere decreases with increasing height (known as the lapse rate), this has the effect of cooling water vapor until it reaches a point where it condenses back into a liquid form (forming clouds and rainfall) – liberating the hidden (latent) heat into the upper atmosphere. With the great bulk of atmospheric moisture being concentrated in the tropics, this ongoing process should lead to greater warming in the tropical troposphere than at the surface.”

The problem
“Despite obvious warming of the atmosphere, it had been difficult to confirm the existence of this hotspot *” Skeptical science
The talking point?
The answer is not that any cause of temperature rise should give a hot spot.
But that a temperature rise seems to have occurred but the warming spot has not.
This then allows for doubt to be cast unfortunately on the measurements of temperature.
Which opens the whole can of worms, Joshua.
[” Show one “skeptic” point to be correct, and then show how that point being correct “adjudges” all “skeptic” arguments (or even a lot of them, or even one of them). “]

*primarily due to analytical deficiencies in accounting for temperature data quality and sampling, i.e. it’s suspected to have been a ‘measurement problem’. Skeptical science
**”The problem is that temperatures vary during the day, and when a new satellite is launched (which happens every few years), it observes the Earth at an earlier time of day than the old one (since after launch, each satellite orbit begins to decay toward later times of day).” Sherwood


Your comment is awaiting moderation.

But I do think that other authors haven’t considered the possibility that the “warmhole” is a consequence, not of a trend change, but of a sudden shift.

Thank you for pointing out this rather large shift or natural variation which goes to show that we do not fully understand the full range of natural variation available on this planet.
Was 2.1 C a 3 sigma shift?
Then we had a 5 sigma shift in the global sea ice last year with nary a viable reason put forward for a regime change.
Either we have much larger error bars than we realise or someone has mucked up the measurements.
CO2 certainly did not do a regime shift at these spots.

Take cars.
Subset electric cars.
I ride a pushbike in a flat, low density small city in a group of mainly over 60’s doing 3 -5 rides a week of 50 K and a coffee afterwards.
Tried to ride the 3 K to work at one stage but just too inconvenient.
We have accidents, fractured clavicles, head injuries hips etc And this is a group that knows how to ride.
Two cars, amazing how 2 people can never quite arrange not to be needed in 2 spots at the same time.
Nonetheless cars are an indictment on CO2 use, not a luxury if you believe in lowering it.
Yet everyone here is probably at least as complacent as I am.
Electric cars have to be manufactured, Tires engines seats glass. They have to be scrapped when they are old. They need fuel input from batteries which cost to make and dispose and if using solar power thay have to be manufactured as well and those things they use to transform the energy often breakdown and need replacing.
I do feel if you are going to talk the talk, you really must walk the walk.
If you read this on a computer, or reply to it you are not really doing your bit.

Global temperature


There is no true global temperature possible because of the existence of the atmosphere and the oceans.

there is a global temperature in that there is an emmission of energy from the globe as a whole which can be measured from space.

temperature is the energy radiated by each component of the globe. If we start from a simple concept of a metal sphere and measure the energy being given off it is axiomatic that the size of the sphere determines the temperature at the surface.

secondly that the composition of the metal is immaterial??

thirdly that the mass of the sphere is unimportant???

how to put it The sphere must radiate back to space the energy that inputs eventually. But must a solid  sphere heat up to the same surface temp as a hollow sphere to do so. This seems wrong it implies that the energy is going into and never coming out of te sphere until it reaches a magical emmision  level so all of this sphere is suddenly holding all this energy that it is then releasing a bit like a dam filling up until it spills over the top whereas a smaller dam spills over much sooner

The sphere takes a heat amount and redistributes it such that each bit of the sphere that could radiate heat does so whereas the incoming heat has only been received by a certain number of bits

the problem for temp of any one bit of the sphere and atmosphere is that the atmosphere effectively rolls the surface area out like a giant radiator or moebious band such that the surface area is greatly increased.

ecs 2018

“There is also a puzzling peak below 1°C. These low values come from the GISS models (Fig. 7a) and if they are removed from the ensemble, the bump below 1K disappears .
We find that 15 of the 25 CMIP5 models produce estimates in agreement with the CERES
observations. If we limit the distributions to just those models , we obtain the ECS distribution in Fig. 6c (hereafter referred to as the “good” distribution).
We consider the “good ” ECS distributions to be the best estimates of ECS from this analysis.
Those ECS distributions have 17-83% confidence intervals (corresponding to the IPCC’s
likely range) of 2.4-4.4 K ”

ATTP has been running a series of articles on ECS, including a discussion of Marvel on 30/1/2018 and one discussing the “one-box energy balance model” by Clive Best by Mark Richardson 1712018 and a new one by Andrew Dessler technically Dessler and Forster) 4/2/2018.
The gist of all the articles is that ECS is most likely 3.0 or higher with an inability or unwillingness to rule out much higher figures.

ATTP says “consider climate change specifically, then the no-feedback response is about 1.2K (i.e., the no-feedback response to doubling atmospheric CO2). This is largely because the Planck response is 3.2W/m^2/K and the change in forcing due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is 3.7W/m^2.”

This issue is very important as shown by the time and effort put into denigrating lower estimates like Nic and Judith’s.
The current trend is to blame the observations for showing lower climate sensitivity than the models and then using the models to prove it should be higher.

Basically a lot of the AGW concern falls over if ECS is 2.0 or less hence the concerted effort to deny this..

Andrew Dessler has an interesting take on using short term observations 2000 to 2017 to achieve an estimate that fits the models.
The only problem is a Gerghis like selectivity of the models he wishes to use for his Monte Carlo runs.
2, based on GISS, suggested ECS in the 1.0 or less range.
Fortunately these were not needed for the 15 out of 25 model ensemble used showing an ECS of average 3.3.

Nonetheless for ECS fans, good reading, and an excellent counterpoise to ideas here.

Yes. The GISS models are certainly outliers is various ways. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that what they imply about ECS is wrong. It has, incidentally, always struck me how different Gavin Schmidt’s views on ECS are with the behaviour of the GCMs developed at the GISS institute that he heads.

The biggest problem with Andrew Dessler’s approach is that, as he states in the paper, “the transfer function ?_IV/ ?_4xCO2 seems the most probable place for a significant error to occur” and they “have no way to observationally validate it, nor any theory to guide us”.

That transfer function is the scaling factor they use to converting observations of short-term, mainly unforced interannual climate variability to an estimate of the response of the climate system to long-term forced warming. It is the biggest contributor to uncertainty in their ECS estimate. They estimate the transfer function using GCMs, but if GCM’s high ECS values are mainly the result of their wrongly simulating long term cloud feedbacks then is is highly probable that their values for the transfer function will also be systematically wrong.Interesting post on many levels hence the large number of comments.
Several hit nerves.
Susan mentioned the unbelievable support for Trump.
One of the mysteries that might deserve it’s own post one day in terms of whether this effort by John is helpful or not as Joshua mentioned.
The similarities in presenting 100 fallacies in Climate change and presenting 100 reasons why Trump should not have been elected share an end result.
The unbelievable happens.
Perhaps giving 100 reasons is trying a bit too hard?
The end result of trying to hard is that people suspect one of having ulterior motives?
Or as might be surmised the BS meters tend to go off.
They look at the arguments and say if they are trying so hard to convince otherwise perhaps there is something there.
It is just a thought.

I take this as a good summary of the the differences in our points of view.
By putting 100 reasons out there, in their 5 groups, all supporting each other there is a unified purpose and consensus for all to agree on.
No I will have a little bit of this and all of that.
It gives skeptics a good starting point as well to review their positions but most importantly it nails the colours to the mast.
If any one point turns out to be right for the skeptics then all points will be adjudged right for them.
Best put the other way round.
If just one of John’s premises were to fall over, the rest, even if right, become shaky and may fall.
I wonder which will be first?