February 4, 2023 at 4:53 pm
” Monckton has an algorithm for cherry picking the start point, but it is still cherry picking. His algorithm is selecting the start point that maximises the strength of his argument (at least for a lay audience that doesn’t understand the pitfalls).”
DM this is not correct.
ATTP and Willis have used algorithms for most but one of their pauses but Monckton never has.
The algorithms incorporating trends are specific to the charts and data used.
One can cherry pick the length of which one of the steps one wants to use,
but, importantly one cannot rig a flat trend.
Because Monckton uses a pause, a new pause, this can only go to the end point of the current date and changes from the new date.
Thus he has never selected start point that maximizes the strength of his argument.
The fact that the pause can lengthen or shorten means he has never cherry picked a starting point.
Willis, unlike ATTP shows part of a truly long pause from 1997 to 2012.
ATTP breaks it down to two different pauses by incorporating different start and end dates.