ecoquant | November 15, 2021 a
“In general extrapolation is a terrible way of “predicting the future.”
kinimod | November 16, 2021 at 12:34 pm |
“Extrapolation may be the best we have”
Hopefully Ecoquant can explain what he actually meant or in lieu of that explain a good method for prediction.
On a different note I still fail to see what Judith has said that is so upsetting.
“Judith Curry, showed a single tide gauge record, did no analysis at all, and said (quote) “Since 1910, sea level has been rising at a steady rate of 1.36 feet, or 16 inches, per century.”
If she states a range, 110 years?
and says there is a rate of 16 inches per century then the rate is 16 inches a century over that time gap.
Whether she characterizes it as an average rate or a steady rate for that time span the comment is perfectly acceptable for that time period.
Steady in that sense means average.
I have taken you to task in the past about your choice of mathematical models. Rough stuff from someone who lacks your expertise level in mathematics.
The problem in part is that mentioned by Ecoquant.
” Suppose there’s no knowledge of where breaks in a series are supposed to go?”
Worse suppose that 30 years is not the right metric at all?
Why not 60 or 120?
Redo your data at a 15 years different starting point.
At a different time interval.
Finally it is not right to select one set of data that you can see a pattern in and extrapolate it to a generalization on tides in general.
No matter how long the record.
Tides are complex. Erosion is complex, Land rise and fall is complex.
You have made a point but the very act of stating that it means something important to you destroys its validity.
One of the best to ask about my theorem but so driven by motivation.
[And I am not??]